deja vu

Yesterday I reposted “Invisible Man“.  Today, it’s about “invisible hand“. There is an invisible hand that definitely plays with events in history, and this Adam-Smith-like hand seems to run out of tricks every 40 years or so, so it seems.

In Understanding Vietnam (Berkeley Press), we learn that history seems to recycle itself every 40 years also

(29-69-09).  First the French romantic/liberty movement, then the generation gap movement, and now the consumer movement.

This time, with the confluence of technological shift, policy shift and evolutionary shift, we  see Vietnam emerge

and leap-frog (it now exports more handsets than garment) into the world scene. After all, it has

survived quarrels with three of the UN Security Council members and emerged unscathed (France, US and China).

Saigon Tourist (a Vietnamese consortium in VN) once acquired a SF hotel in Fisherman Wharf  for $44 million (as of this edit, a Chinese consortium has just acquired a development around the Staples Center in the Southland).

It’s like a bi-coastal mirror image of another Vietnamese hotel owner from New York (who by the way donated a lot of money to the victims of disasters in New York).

It’s about time Vietnamese philanthropy plays catch up. The Viet Kieu (Viet expats) community has another 2 years to  face its American version of 40-year cycle. At that point, there will be a hand-over of the torch to the second generation, whom , as studies often confirm, wants nothing to do with their first-generation immigrant parents.

Many FDI projects have been abandoned here in VN. Banks are stuck with bad debts. And companies pick up the tab to retrain their workforce, whose education ill-prepares them for the work world. The only sure thing here are young people getting married in drove over the holidays.

I have seen it before: the rush to spend, then withdraw syndrome to survive, then spend again as if there is no tomorrow, much less next year.

If any indication at all, the young demographics will take up on Western counterparts, from online gaming to online music, from lifestyle consumption to hopefully, a respect for the fragile environment. It’s deja vu all over again here Vietnam: eat, drink and be merry. They did that in war time, now they do it in peace time. 40 years is a long time, but then, 40 years seems like just a blink of an eye. Just try to hear the prelude to some songs you once loved, and tell me you don’t react on reflex as if you had done not so long ago, when you first heard it and felt it resonated.

I hope you love the “invisible hand” better than being the “invisible man”. At least, that hand might give you a chance, another dance.

 

 

On the driver’s seat

Look! so cute…..Q. It’s a QQme, only me!

http://autonews.gasgoo.com/auto-news/1011066/Chery-Auto-to-launch-QQme-minicar-tonight.html

Watch out Mini and Beetles, your competitor is coming, in pink! And it costs only $6000.

Just don’t let me be seating on the driver’s seat.

I don’t want to be a male driver of a pink mini car.

No offense.

It’s like answering a call from an over-accessorized Nokia,  or holding a lady purse so she can have free hands to try on a dress.

Henry Ford would take back his utterance “you can have Model T in any color  you want, as long as it’s black”

The age of monopoly in the market place is truly over.

Now marketers will have to get down on their knees and perform some “CSI-like”  diligence.

Some companies employ anthropologists, while others, mathematicians (Google).

It will be an endless loop (like Bruce Lee in Enter the Dragon, the mirror scene) of personalized search.

Sort of like Amazon, sending back your past browsing list to up sell you.

The Me generation has finally gone overseas to China in its post-Mao world.

And the US in this post-Nixon  era, resembles more like Wal-mart  trading down nation.

I cheered the 3-job holder California man from Santa Cruz who won the lottery.

Now we have three p/t job openings in Santa Cruz : limo driving, restaurant and candy machine operator.

I’ll take all three. May be his luck will rub on me.  When it’s my turn to hit the lottery, I will open a Chery dealership

where a GM used to be. And my customers will be all first-time female drivers who will finance my QQme for the rest of their adult lives.  They can have any color they want, as long as it’s PINK. Just don’t let me sit on the driver’s seat.

Asian shoppers wanted!

The Economist runs a piece about domestic consumption in Asia.

The Asian countries  happen to save more than shop,  while they are supposed to shop more than save to keep the (global economy) engine humming. And the (car) engines in China are humming all right, at the rate of 47% growth in automobile sales (traffic jam?!?).

I noticed the irony of Tata acquiring Jaguar, and now China heavy industrial company tries to acquire Hummer.

Tata among other things is known for producing cars under $5,000 (volume business). Now they added Jaguar, a luxurious brand into their product line.  This is the equivalence of Yugo acquiring Lexus or Pinto adding BMW.

Talking about odd coupling.

In the midst of hard times, at least the House had enough sense to pass on climate legislation.

Tough decision overall: pushing for more consumption in Asia (which implies more manufacturing in the region, both for export and domestic consumption, which inevitably produce dirty air) yet advocating tougher clean-air act.

No wonder factories from China started to move South to Vietnam, and dumped more industrial waste into its streams and waters. China + 1 my …. The small guy always gets the shorter end of the stick.

I tried to tell my 6-year old about “you can’t have a cake and eat it too” concept. Maybe I should tell Asians in Asia that too. About consumption and saving, about manufacturing and environment, and about urbanization and infrastructure. Except that I need to say, “you can’t have your noodle and eat it too”. That  way they can pick it up  faster.  “Attention Wal-mart shoppers: blue-light special, every day.” Save more, live better!

Let’s make a pact!

“we will bring salvation back”…

I have learned a hard lesson: some songs are best to leave to the original recording (Desperado, If you leave me now, and I’ll be there ). Don’t think because they are nice to listen to, means that you can just pick them out for karaoke.

Anyway, the King of Pop is gone. The music, however, lives on. I have just listened to Motown recording of “I’ll be there”.

“You and I must make a pact, we must bring salvation back.where there is love, I’ll be there.”

We do need each other. No question about it. Life is so fragile, even to a pop icon. Actually, in M. Jackson’s case,

it is even more fragile than most. The irony of a child star, adored by all, yet loved by none.

I learned a long time ago, not to speak ill of the death. But tragedy loves company. And the entertainment sector

just lost two of its well-known in one day. You thought it’s just another long hot summer at the gas pump. It turns out that we have news from Tehran, N Korea, the sentencing of Madoff, and now Michael Jackson’s autopsy.

I woke up and had my feet on the floor this morning, and couldn’t help thanking God that I am alive.

Everything else is secondary. I would take death over dementia though. One needs not only to breathe, but also

to make sense of the myriads of musical notes and binary code combination. Data and score, lyrics and text.

Life is simple yet complex, and somehow, musicians and mathematicians manage to produce in a range that resonates and strike the chord in all of us, a shared experience (I still remember walking to French school with Pierre when I first heard of the Kennedy assassination). Those early memories also include enduring  American Pie (long winding song) while waiting for the movie to start.  But it’s music such as these that defined our generation: the quest for life, the why’s of things, and the challenge of change itself.

We grew up embracing the unknown, not status-quo. We know that the more we want things to stay the same, the more things will have to change. And in the process of managing those changes, we took the road less travel, and not  the path of least resistance. The journey is the reward so far.  And although I thought I wouldn’t see that many people on the road, it turns out I am not alone. There are others who perceive the world the same way, wanting

to make things happen for the better.
You and I must make a pact, we will  bring salvation back .

Sound of silence

“In restless dream I walk alone…” the 60’s famous Simon & Garfunkel lyrics still reverberates today.

A generation which sought to heighten social awareness, and pushed for change away from  “a neon god they made”..

I am not sure how much of an impact the 60’s managed to work itself into institutional reform, but at the individual level, we see changes , from Lyndon Johnson’s hippie hair to Jay Leno’s motor cycle, from mainframe to open source.

Change doesn’t come easy. It takes finesse and know-how (the art of woo). It’s not what you know, but who you know.

Now researchers found that human  prefer to listen more from their right ears than their left.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20090624/sc_livescience/mostpeoplepreferrightearforlistening

Being in the field of persuasion, I naturally am interested in such study.

(I keep seeing congressional aides whisper into their boss’ ear during C-PAN coverage).

Nixon was listening to Henry Kissinger and Billy Graham. Bush to Cheney. I am not sure which ear through which they listen to their counsels. But from recent release of the White House tapes, we now know how our leaders mulled over their decisions, and the company they kept ( “I will have his head cut off if I need to” – to make the Paris Peace Accord happen).

And today, the press is having a field day with S. C. Governor’s disappearance .

Let  him who has no sin cast the first stone. We forgive trillion dollars of debt to banking “institutions”, but we expect perfection from “individuals”.  No wonder, people always are in a hurry to “institutionalize” or “incorporate”.

In the age of YouTube, the visual impact is unpredictable: the news media interns went into the archive, and pulled  news footage of past public confessions: Bill Clinton, Spitzer, Edward etc…to gain points (cheap shots!).

Man, what’s going on here. I can’t wait until tomorrow to see the Madoff’s sentencing.

He knew what was coming, yet didn’t mind serving as the fall guy. And fall he will, perhaps even free-falling.

I don’t judge, let myself be judged. But again, we bail out institutions, not individuals. If you plead, make sure it’s the judge’s RIGHT ear, not his/her left. Or else, like Holden Caulfield in Catcher in the Rye, you will “in restless dream I walk alone”….

Lost decade?!?

Below is what I wrote back in June 2009. 3.5 years have gone by rather quickly since the depth of the Recession. _____

One thing for sure. By the time we look back at the 2000-2010 period, we will already be well into our 4-G smart phones,

Web 3.0 or 4.0 using Android-like in the “cloud” and women will already be living and working out of the White House.

I will try to salvage whatever left on my social security, and still pick up my gym bag every morning just as I do now.

Or let’s play another scenario, the best scenario. The US will dynamically soar like an eagle, via innovation, high-value manufacturing and will be a leader of design and trend setting (by allowing legal immigration of high-sought talents).

I cannot go on, because this prospect excites me too much! Like my friend who tries to sell EMR software, every time

there are some positive movements in Electronic Health Records, he can’t sleep.

Who wouldn’t be excited at the prospect of an America who claims its rightful place in the world ?

So much cynicism and screw-ups already, enough to constitute a century worth of  learning curve.

To be both big and nimble, one must visualize a Sumo wrestler who tries Hapkido (I don’t recommend trying, speaking from my painful experience of a broken arm).

Again, skill-set that enable knowledge workers to thrive in the next decade must be taught right from high school: personal finance, soft-ware basics,  time and project management, ethics, team leadership and most of all, the art of selling one’s self and ideas.

I haven’t even touched on social entrepreneurship and globalization. These are subjects too burdensome for high school age (although many young people at that age could be found quite idealistic and out spoken).

Lost decade? I am afraid if we don’t change course, we might end up with a lost century.

In talent recruitment and development, we need to leap-frog, just as developing countries are doing with their wireless infrastructure. I know one thing well, and it is, there is nothing better than working with a great team who moves forward as one.

A girl walks into a bar…

We all need a “third place” (neither home nor office) to let our hair down.

It used to be Cheers-like place “where everybody knows your name“.

And lately, it’s been Starbucks, which struck a yuppie nerve (male and female).

With the lingering recession, I suspect that jokes will have to start with “a girl walks into a Starbucks…” or

“a Mr Mom walks into a MacDonald…”

for both men and women share equal stress load during hard times. Except that women are more prone to explore

and share with one another their feelings, much more than men. I noticed a string of suicide by men, taking with them

their families, children included. The American dream had turned nightmare for some. We were more confident

to overspend money which was not ours than we do this side of “green sprouts” with money which is ours.  There lies the paradox:

economic activities are powered by collective trust and confidence, and slow down in their absence.

I saw the Verizon‘s CEO interview on Charlie Rose last night. He came across  astute and ambassadorial: “it’s getting back to the quality of the network”…(can you hear me now?).  I came away with higher appreciation for the smart phone category. And I couldn’t help agree more with Charlie’s last word ” wonder if the US will put more emphasis on tech adoption as some other countries did , so its citizens can take advantage of the network effect“.

We will learn to communicate in ways we have yet known how (from the early days of gossip news at the boat docks, and in the bars, to today’s instant tweet). I told you, we all need a third place, the place where everybody knows your name, where they can see what you are up to and maybe, share a laugh: “a girl walks into a bar, she demands to buy that TV behind the bar. Bartender replies, “No, can’t sell”. She asks “why not” Then the next day, same thing, except this time, she brings cash, lots of them. “I still want to buy that TV there behind the bar” Mam, can’t sell it to you. Why not? Well, for one, it’s not a TV. It’s a microwave.”

 

Kid’s express!

By whatever means, they express themselves much better than adults.

Kids. Mine also. Maily, age 6, came through with her “art work” for Father’s Day.

Aimy, age 17, chose to text. Before I can say “express”, they might as well email  or Skype each other.

It’s quite a chore to get the young one to sit still and concentrate on a math problem.

The TV must first be  turned off. Then the computer and whatever else that could serve as a distraction.

Tough Age we are living in. And by the same token, quite an exciting Age, sensory wise.

We could and accept to live with the jittery images of  a twitter up- load on CNN so we can witness the street protest in Tehran. CNN said we were “witnessing a turning page in world history.” It seems as if  journalists are now making a pre-judgment, instead of  just observing events ( Yahoo, by putting the time line of Iran since the Shah,

it put a spin on it (as if  this protest were a fait accompli in Iranian history). But what about the  pre-Shah Iran?

Who cares? I don’t know much about each country’s history, do you? The point is, we are all caught up in a selective reality (smoke and fire makes good visual) which is better than fiction. (I delayed popping in my rented DVD to watch tonight’s CNN twitter clip).

I have watched many unfolding drama on TV, but often miss out the unfolding truth right before me: my kids’ growth . Someday, they will read these blog archives,

and look back to those twitter clips, and will be able to relate to me in new ways. They will find out that I have been away from

my homeland, due to a series of events outside of my control. They will learn that history takes its heavy toll, and is not a freak show to “entertain” the viewing public. Protests  swept away lives with all their hope, fear and dream. Today’s special, if I can recall correctly,  is NEDA , laying dead amidst a sea of protest.

Back in 75, it could have been a Thang Nguyen, or X nguyen. Broken lives are hard to mend, except when viewed in hindsight .The Japanese are known for pouring gold into the cracks to fix broken objects, and in doing so, giving them more value. I like that! God rest your soul NEDA! You are more famous now than ever will be.

Greed is good ?!?

Who wore suspenders (not Larry King), and had his Stairs Master right in his office? Kirk Douglas’ son, of course (  his  Dad I remember always as one hell of a Spartan).
The 80’s could be summed up in that one line: greed is good. Yuppies were in. And the wealth and health gospel was well propagated on evangelistic TV (Tammy Baker).
Bonfire of Vanity just replaced Catcher in the Rye, just as greed in place of alienation !  And women in the work place were seen in shoulder patches and frizzy hair . William Bennett was then the Secretary of Education, and you know what happened with him – publishing books urging morality in public, yet a gambling addict  in private . I saw him on CNN live this morning, but with the sound down at the gym I couldn’t hear what was being said.  Somehow, public personalities keep resurfacing, counting on our collective amnesia.  In Asia, he would have been done in, for good. So was Tammy and Jimmy Baker,  contrite or not. Any publicity is good?

Could have been worse.  They could have been ignored !
On other notes, I saw the unfolding drama in Tehran via twitter.
It reminds me of countless protests I either participated in
or witnessed : Buddhist monk immolation against Diem, flower power, “Mr Gorbachev, tear down that wall,” Beijing man facing oncoming tanks, and “can’t we get along?”.
What made people take it to the streets and risk their lives? why can’t they just sign a petition or go to the voting booth? Well, fathers must step up, as the President says. Or maybe we should leave the protest to single men and women. As Dads, we must stay home. right?

Just don’t bring the Stairs Master into the home office. And most importantly, don’t wear suspenders. At least, on two later films,  Michael Douglas moved on from Wall Street to Main Street (Falling down) as he portrayed an unemployed man who kept leaving the house every morning with a sandwich in his brief case, and finally( in Disclosure) , he played a male subordinate being sexually harassed by his female boss (Demi Moore). In the world of work, you either produce, get lay-off or get harassed. And for the sake of political correctness, you lose if you sue. Greed or aggression is a human thing, not just a  male thing. Suspenders or shoulder patches?

Courage

This Sunday, it’s hard not to reflect on our Dads, our DNA carriers. Mine had (he passed away a few years ago) a mixture of courage, melancholy and good look. It’s his first character that I chose to reflect on this year. Courage more than often demands confrontation. Many of us would rather avoid confronting evil, or delay any involvement (at least, this is a step up from apathy). But any student can tell us that war has been a big part of human history.
War and its aftermath entailed many associated and often times hidden costs. War brought with it unintended consequences, since a force would inevitably bring on an opposite and equal reaction (Newton’s law of motion).
Courage takes into consideration all the known consequences, but still goes ahead.
My dad stood up for me when the bully had beaten me down (I had stood my ground before that as well, having some of his DNA’s). Fast forward to the present time, collectively, we are faced with a huge “bully”: a mixture of danger and opportunity (Crisis). There are 1 Billion people going hungry every night right now.  Imagine a world where hunger is alleviated, and this 1 billion are put to productive work (not to say consume). UN leadership should be calculating the costs right now as we speak.  Their action will require a lot of courage.  The American character has shown to be on the side of courage and involvement, rather than avoidance. For the costs of inaction will be much higher.

Happy Father’s Day and be courageous!