Tag: The Wall Street Journal

Don’t jump the gun

It started with interchangeable parts in a gun factory, then “re-engineering” in the auto-assembly plant to full automation (former Secretary of Labor Reich said that if workers lose their sense of optimism, then there is no replacement). In NY, the manufacturing sector employs 40% a century ago, now it stands at mere 4% (conversely, a decade ago, only 5% of US adults joined social network, now 50%).

A separate Harvard study showed 2/3 of workers don’t feel engaged at work. The “showing-up” economy is nearing its end (not when machines had been at work all night long).

Whatever left for the US based workers ( to protect patents, marketing and sales, or the experience economy like casual dining and Disneyland, licensed-based like massage and health care) to do, ought to be of high-value, high yield. In short, being indispensable.

ATT and other big firms are re-shoring call center jobs as a trade-off for tax rebate.

The T in EBITDA is now split to T1 and T2, offshore tax haven and in-shored tax rebate, respectively.

Consumers win thanks to global competition and cheap technology (since when can people talk-and-ride, productivity level once reserved for first-class train passengers between Connecticut and NYC – where WSJ copies were on everyone’s lap).

Inter-changeable parts, inter-changeable markets/regions, inter-changeable skills (at follow-the-sun call centers). In short, tradeable services (Michael Spence).

We see the emergence of 21st-century self-help guru who urges us, e.g.the 4-hr work week, to outsource everything (so we have time to build our 4-hr body).

Civilization and its discontent.

Penny-slot nation.

Native American reservations open to everyone at all hours.

It history is of any guide, we are reverting to a 21st-cent version of aristocracy (instead of land, it’s machine owners vs workers) albeit Sino-Indie centric as opposed to Euro-centric.

Speaking of land, Ted Turner owns a vast amount of land in the South. He apparently wants to have a portfolio mix between the air wave and estate value. Common sense tells us we can only substitute the real with virtual for so long.

Human interaction takes time. It’s called building trust. Indispensable and non-interchangeable. Just don’t jump the gun on things that are human.

 

Stay hungry, stay curious

The first advice was from Jobs, a college drop-out, in his commencement speech.

The second, recently, was the gist of a NYT op-ed by Brooks.

Those are mantels of would-be entrepreneurs.

Where else can you find people who are willing to sleep (if at all) in sleeping bags and code for days on end, with no prospect of a pay check?

Interns for life.

Meanwhile, exchange students protested inhuman “trafficking” at Hershey‘s outsourcing arm.

No more sweet spot there at sweet factory (after the students realized that taken in all the expenses, they ended up working for free). Interns for life.

At least they learn a thing or two about voicing their opinion within the confine of  the law.

We finally enter an age where muscles and machines (physical layer) are counted less than mind (application layer). A recent WSJ most-read by a VC guru was all about “software eating everyone’s lunch”.

Just try to fight drones, or robot cops.

BTW, it’s been a lost decade, with 9/11 as one bookend ( the two planes knocking down the Twin towers), and  the other, two helicopters (albeit one was left behind) getting back at Bin laden. It is to show how much harm done by one man’s hyper-imagination, and how much good our collective brain are capable of (a recent Tampa youth just wanted to copy Columbine, instead of applying to Columbia).

Stay hungry, stay curious. Drop out if you lack the passion for staying in (a Venture capitalist argued just that when he offered a contest for new ideas from would-be entrepreneurs, college degree  not required).

But stay curious. There are a lot of unknown unknowns out there. Learn to connect the dots, and recognize the patterns. Spot the trends.

And don’t forget to stay curious even when you were no longer hungry.

Because someone will eat your lunch before you know it. Borders, HP (computer division) and Nokia, have all learned this hard lesson. No rest for the weary. Not in this century.

Not when machines like Watson can start “swamping”, guessing your next move.

And quit when you are ahead, like Steve Jobs. Learn calligraphy. Learn something about something. Stay curious.