Alternate Dream

American Dream has undergone a makeover of late (maybe because the Chinese economy itself was heading for a cliff, so it needed to apply a break on lending).

Whatever the underlying reason, America middle class is contracting not because of shrinking population , but mostly because of declining income and consumption. In short, the good old time isn’t rolling back anytime soon.  At least, not for the same people. Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow.

For the past few years, we became schooled in all kinds of financial instrumentation: derivative, quantitative easing etc….

New economy, old economists.

Half of them was right half of the time. The other half call themselves “contrarians”.

I bet on the future.  I know kids are smart. They have been told to play it safe, to hold their cards closer to the chest.

And it (the Dream) did not materialize for them (at least, not  for their European counterparts).

So, they figure. I am going out on the limp to strike for gold myself.

Estonian kids saw the success of Skype. As a result, they are learning how to code at an early age.

Long way from the fall of the Berlin wall  to the building of the firewall.

Meanwhile, back  at the range, American are forced to be “content” with loss leaders, everyday.

Dollar Stores are rising while the dollar itself isn’t worth much.

Made-in-China use to be jeered at. Now it’s the only game in town.

I know new games are in the works. Part of the chain of evolution is to invent disruption e.g. flat panel TVs vs tube TV‘s,  Wi-fi vs cable wiring. Perhaps someday we will see the electrification in transportation. For now, adjust your expectations. Wake up hot-dog nation. Rise from your slumber. Step out into the darkest of nights where the stars are few, but much brighter. The glass has always been half full.  It’s in the American character, belongs to those who left behind the familiar for the unfamiliar. Those who dare to dream and dream big. Anchor it  really high. And turn a portion of it into reality. One by one, and together, Yes We Can, again. An adjusted American Dream., smelled more like our new reality, is still better than none.

Prosperity and austerity

We are all into wealth creation. Until the voice of reason calls for cuts.

What happened to “you have to spend money to make money?”

or mental (muscle) memory (once you reached a certain peak, you tend to recreate the experience to get the same “rush” e.g. venture capitalists in search of another win).

Best of times, worst of times.

Now we know what we are made of. Will that be cash or cash?

Chocolate and Dollar Stores are selling.

Go Hershey go.

Flip the Flip, Cisco.

Back in 1999, a branch manager said something so prescient that its implications still work themselves out “it’s going to be all IP”.

I read up on it. The OSI model etc… back then, broadband and fiber link still remained “dark”. We were at the physical layer (build-out stage). Now, we see mobile apps and Apple Apps stores.

Netflix which got its start using the USPS as its “physical layer”, now evolves into online and on-screen.

My housemate doesn’t want to receive any mail. He said they were mostly bills.

We have become Pre-Paid nation.

First, we went paperless (paying online, save a tree) then we moved to paying everything upfront, render the billing department obsolete.

Home Depot, Walmart and other supermarkets now offer self check-out (a step up from bagging your own groceries to lower the costs). Everybody is living a student life-style (frozen orange juice and canned food), including zipcar (the rise of the sharing economy i.e. p2p lending).

And to add insult to injury, Tiffany doubles its efforts in China (not New York) in the wake of Japan‘s decline.

A new Disneyland is planned for China, and Happyland, Vietnam.

Follow the money.

Disney there, Dollar here. Prosperity and austerity.

They said the top 2% had more in common with one another (even across the cultures) than with the 98% of their fellow countrymen. Davos there, Dollar here. Prosperity and austerity.

Guy Kawasaki mentioned about “death as the great equalizer” (he was quite entertaining as well enchanting in his talk about Enchantment at Standford). I reflected on this just yesterday, upon reading about a 29-year-old Costa Mesa city worker who jumped to his death instead of facing mass lay-off.

There were so much life left despite austerity. Maybe prosperity will return in his lifetime. Isn’t technology supposed to make our lives easier and create more wealth? Greenspan called this a great disconnect (more capital pumped into the system, but not enough to spread around for projects. In short, wealth creation without job creation).

There isn’t any other time in history when we feel we don’t have enough time in the day to do everything

(Viet Film Festival in Irvine received “too many entries” ….Dish promised 200 channels with no contract, Apple cannot churn out enough Ipad 2).

Hence, the proliferation of filter apps e.g. Color etc… (incidentally, Billy Nguyen in Palo Alto who co-founded the company slept in his sleeping bag to rush product out of the window, while Huy Pham of the city of Costa Mesa jumped out of it for lack of work). Prosperity and Austerity. Best of times, worst of times.

Super shoppers

Super computing power arms super shoppers on Super Saturday w/ price updates.

Retail outfits such as Best Buy might have to be renamed the age of Dollar Stores.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704694004576019691769574496.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_RightMostPopular

Tri Tang of Orange County was holding up his Smart Phone to do some comparison shopping in real-time. Faster chip speed (compressing more data into less space),  improved supply chain and lean manufacturing from world’s Super Factory in our post-recession era gave birth to Super Shoppers.

I went out to buy a car yesterday (I did my part). As a consumer, I found old media (classified ads for loss leaders and radio commercials) irrelevant. With Autocheck, Autotrader, Carfax and Carmax (super store), shoppers are now more informed than the sales person whose answer is “let me check and call you back”.

Super shoppers ask questions not to seek information. They ask for a confirmed response. Stores and “associates” will have to do some acrobatic like Cirque du Soleil‘s to survive.

Super shopping pits not only brick-and-mortar stores against each other (Target vs Wal-Mart), channel vs direct (Apple stores vs Apple web site) but also online vs online (Amazon vs Overstock.com).

No wonder Best Buy is under pricing pressure, which not long ago, took down Circuit City.

Female super shoppers, a majority of whom are now heads of household, shop for electronics and cars (once alpha males’ domain). Stores like Carmax milk these customers’ life time value by improving “impressive first impressions” and rely on economy of scale.

Disney staying power testifies to shopper’s early imprints. Randy in the Last Lecture referred to his childhood visit to Disney World in one of his chapters.

Super shoppers not only shop for price but also for convenience, quality and a positive shopping experience. The only thing left to worry about is “how to lug around an Ipad”. Tri Tang in our story didn’t carry an Ipad. He wielded around his smart phone inside the store, locating signal strength, looking for the best deal.

Truth in advertising has been around for a while. But the mechanism to enforce it has just arrived in the hand of the Super Shopper near you.