Tag: Cold War

Re-start

When I read up on Relay (grocery delivery), I can’t help admiring the tenacity and tag line (Think Outside of the Bag).

After all, the article did mention dot.com bust (Webvan). Something about our shopping habit, running errand etc… despite the high gas price.

It’s a disconnect we allow ourselves to fall into: think hard at work, and let go after work (acting out of reflex and habit).

Entrepreneurs are what they are: latch on to a compelling idea, research market need and launch the company. Many failed out of the gate due to ill timing or under capitalized.

But most failed because of what’s inherent with start-ups: the tiny odds, the fleeting consumers and  the burnt rate.

I have met people with cute feedbacks like “at least, I have learned what not to do”.

Since each experience is unique, chances are the next venture will surprise us again with curve balls and hidden traps.

Are we to give up?

It’s the same question as you would ask a divorcee whether he/she will stay single. It’s in the nature of serial entrepreneurs to keep stumbling upon another opportunity, another challenge.

Guy Kawasaki had a book named The Art of the Start. That was a decade ago.

Today, he would have to rename it The Art of Re-Start. For young entrepreneurs like those at Relay or Petco.

Or those who are in Financial and Housing.

You won’t see a lot of veterans doing D2D asking business to open a checking account (they do that now a days).

But the young bankers would be eager to win customers over in the school of hard-knocks.

It’s a different business environment, where bankers walk the street and groceries delivered to your door.

It’s our Post-recession era, Post-Cold War world, and the end of History as Fukuyama coined it.

Especially at a start-up, whose partners have learned “what not to do”. This time, it’s a relay race, not 100-meters speed race. Share the pain and split the odds. Throw in some prayers too.

Omega

Since her debut, Skeeter Davis with her hit “The End of the World” has etched in our collective memory.

Since then, we have gone through a series of doomsday threats: ICBM‘s, fate of the Earth, hot and Cold War, now Doomsday 2012). In Murakami’s latest 1Q84, our principal female character, who once was a Personal Trainer, learned that when male offenders got kicked in the balls, it felt like “end of the world”. Parents in Newtown felt like End of the World a week before Christmas. Doomsday came early for them.

I am afraid the Omega point doesn’t come as swiftly and decisively, but more evolutionarily until “mankind for the second time will have discovered fire”. We will face our own “Dec 21st”, with or without regret, individually. But in my end, my beginning.

More empathy. More humane.

That said. I have come across disturbing news here in Vietnam Yahoo page lately: college student got stabbed right on campus, 4 young-female gang stabbed strangers in Binh Duong etc…  I notice a lot of machetes and ice cubes. One was for chopping coconuts and sugar cane, the other for cooling the drinks.

Rage and rampage are everywhere, North and South,  East and West.

Don’t think worldwide Recession have nothing to do with “Back to Blood“.

I hope judges in New York think of global consequences, the ripple effect. Instead of just “securing” Madoff in a comfortable A/C North Carolina prison with visitation rights.

White-collar crime got white-collar sentences.

Blue-collar folks with or without committing a crime, have already been condemned to a low- brow life.

But then, Omega comes. The end point. The equalizer of all sentences. Justice is served. Poetically. One stanza and one standard for all.

For now,we still have to finish our given “sentence”. Just do time.

An act of kindness here, a condolence there. (A colleague from MCI is among the Newtown parents whose kids were shot down, point-blank).

Doomsday for him? No, he refused to let the tragedy define them. People are posting and wearing Purple, the color his late daughter used to love.

Go Purple! Bleed Orange (MCI classic color).

Til the day we all bleed red. Individualized Omega point “when mankind will have discovered fire”.

In my end, my beginning. Go ahead, make my day (Dec 21st, 2012). Either way, just don’t kick me in the balls.

Stories of Suffering

Unlike America where suffering is well hidden behind locked doors, here in Vietnam, it is in your face: lottery ticket sellers.

They could be an under-age child, a blind man, or the worst case, a young man who dragged himself (both feet paralyzed) along an extremely crowded street peddling tickets.

Even the Cu Chi tunnel, once hot and carpet-bombed, now welcomes visitors to its hollow chamber of suffering.  Underground resistance come clean.

To be here, to see those sites, to feel the heat, the smell, the suffering which might be raw to us, but taken for granted by everyone, is to face reality.

No pain killers, no aspirin.

Just raw sewage and suffering.

And when it heats up, in the middle of the day, you will know what it was like to endure, to persevere and to fight for survival.

A generation of leaders in politics and media have come of age: TV anchors (now retired) ambassador-nominee (J Kerry), committee head ( J. McCain) all had walked this ground.  One word that sums up Vietnam: HOT. Hot war during the Cold War, hot because of the heat, and now, “hot” is used for Retail during Christmas.

First-time visitors to Vietnam, from America, would step off the Cruise Ship.

Checked in an A/C hotel and showed up for tours.

He/she might find out at nearby bookstores that Vietnamese readers browse all sorts of literature from Russia, France, Japan, Australia, Eastern Europe and occasionally US.

In short, military powers don’t equate with cultural influence.

By 2030, studies reveal that Asia blocks and other emerging nations will share the various seats at the table. The dialog and discussions will be diverse.

The best outcome of America’s experience in Vietnam goes beyond the Powell Doctrine. It’s to produce a generation of leaders whose mindset now look beyond the surface (glossy), to the  suffering.

Cu Chi Tunnel or other tunnels. They are there to invite searchers and researchers to face and learn about other people, their aspiration and operation.

I haven’t yet taken that tour, but everyday, suffering is in my face. I shared a table with a blind man this morning over coffee. He stepped off a ten-person passenger vehicle (xe lam), found his way to the usual spot and lit up.

Then he pulled out a pocket-size radio for background music. I listened to that song (about mid-night mass rendez-vous) and felt what he felt: when your world is reduced to darkness and only darkness, you “dig” your way out of it, via other senses (touching and hearing). He used his fingers to measure the level when pouring his tea, while enjoying his portable music.

This was just one story of suffering. There are many more. If one cares and dares to face them instead of hiding them behind institutional doors.

The normalization of the abnormal

Some of us who still remember the Cold War remember how easy things were: black and white.

Everything else “Third World.”

Now, the Third World has emerged. Hence, we live in a multi-polar world.

More complicated world. More are at stake.

People wheel and deal.

Purchasing parity has become less of a parity.

Trading up and trading down. Things and places are interchangeable (Banana Republic , despite its name, used to carry made-in-India or the Philippines – no banana republic there).

Marijuana used to be a taboo. Now it’s legal in some states.

I am confused. My moral sense (put there by my parents who were born early in the 20th century) has been challenged and put to question.

Those foundations are constantly revised and compromised.

First by others, then myself (or else, I am looked at as a loser or an outsider).

Sounds like a teenage phenomenon. But it’s real. Flight or fight.

Cavemen syndrome still.

With technology moving so fast, energy consumed at break-neck speed, our sense of the world and how it should operate needs a relook.

The enemy is now our friend ( for example, Russia as supplier of oil and arms).

Our friend has become enemy (by abandonning us when the coalition calls for joint troops in the Gulf Wars).

What was abnormal has become normal.

In this multi-polar world, China, now the largest automobile market in the world,

doesn’t discriminate imported products, but its export ones are.

For the right reason (unsafe, copy cat etc…).

We have an image problem.

We need to improve our relations with others (who have also changed).

We need new friendnemies.

We need to normalize that which was considered abnormal.

Gay is the new straight , the pheripherals have gone mainstream.

It’s late-stage now for a lot of things such as globalization and world trade (finished products get shipped back to the US and Western countries, turning the US standing into a Third World status by definition).

I am glad we still agree on grammar points and earning points.

Do unto others as we would like to be done onto.

The only thing that is constant is change itself. Grow up!

Expired Empires

The Distributed Model has enabled the Rise of the Rest.

Capital, talent and market flow where the chips may fall. Apple courting China, China Africa, Japan Rest of Asia etc…

Everyone is out on the dancing floor.

Dance anyone?

The combinations are endless. Permutation and exponential.

Hard and soft powers, hard and soft currencies.

Exert that influence. Assert that strength. Differentiate.

Nations, like people, will have their 15-minutes of fame.

Advertisement section (like ones in the Economist) paints beautiful, picturesque locations, from Japan to Jamaica.

In reality, no one wants to remember Fukushima and Sandy.

Amnesia and amnesty.

Shelters from the storm.

America got its own set of problems e.g. FOR LEASE and FORECLOSURE.

There was a sign in Los Angeles that says it all. It was NOW HIRING, but the W has been whited out to be read: NO_  HIRING.

I got all sorts of CV’s (binders full of men). I feel the weak pulse of a declining empire.

We have squandered the opportunities this side of the Cold War (the US fared much better on this side of World Wars). Peace time problems e.g. Petro State (Dutch disease) to Penn State (low morale).

Meanwhile, the C in BRIC keeps growing stronger by the day. Scrapped metal scavenging, refined and remade into finished products, which got shipped back. In the process, this turns America into a Third-World nation by industrial standard.

China on the hunt for raw material, for petro, for talent, for know-how, for creativity. It has Soviet, US and Japan lessons to learn from. And it has Hong Kong and Taiwan as matchmakers. When a Taiwanese University came to Alhambra, CA to recruit students, we know the Rest is Rising.

And this foreshadows an expired Empire. Wake up Ivy League. Start at Little League. Math, Science, and English. 10,000 hours.

Alternate Dream

American Dream has undergone a makeover of late (maybe because the Chinese economy itself was heading for a cliff, so it needed to apply a break on lending).

Whatever the underlying reason, America middle class is contracting not because of shrinking population , but mostly because of declining income and consumption. In short, the good old time isn’t rolling back anytime soon.  At least, not for the same people. Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow.

For the past few years, we became schooled in all kinds of financial instrumentation: derivative, quantitative easing etc….

New economy, old economists.

Half of them was right half of the time. The other half call themselves “contrarians”.

I bet on the future.  I know kids are smart. They have been told to play it safe, to hold their cards closer to the chest.

And it (the Dream) did not materialize for them (at least, not  for their European counterparts).

So, they figure. I am going out on the limp to strike for gold myself.

Estonian kids saw the success of Skype. As a result, they are learning how to code at an early age.

Long way from the fall of the Berlin wall  to the building of the firewall.

Meanwhile, back  at the range, American are forced to be “content” with loss leaders, everyday.

Dollar Stores are rising while the dollar itself isn’t worth much.

Made-in-China use to be jeered at. Now it’s the only game in town.

I know new games are in the works. Part of the chain of evolution is to invent disruption e.g. flat panel TVs vs tube TV‘s,  Wi-fi vs cable wiring. Perhaps someday we will see the electrification in transportation. For now, adjust your expectations. Wake up hot-dog nation. Rise from your slumber. Step out into the darkest of nights where the stars are few, but much brighter. The glass has always been half full.  It’s in the American character, belongs to those who left behind the familiar for the unfamiliar. Those who dare to dream and dream big. Anchor it  really high. And turn a portion of it into reality. One by one, and together, Yes We Can, again. An adjusted American Dream., smelled more like our new reality, is still better than none.

This side of the curtain

It would have been stuff taken from” The spy who came in from the cold.”

For three months now, I have lived in the alley behind the local police station.

My big brother would have fainted just to learn about it.

He is a pharmacist, retiring, but still goes to work per diem.

He was drafted during the Vietnam War, like everyone else. But he only stationed in town, to teach a class in Medical Tech (X ray machines etc..)

He would never come back, would never hang out in the alley.

I even wanted to trade place with one of the guys in passing. Would you let me have your place, with you going to CA, and me staying here.

The guy politely declined, or brushed it off.

Times has changed!

This side of the curtain has mostly old files, not yet digitized.

People are in a hurry to consume and to spend.

It has been mild lately. Some people caught a cold.

It would be a funny movie to show a spy who caught a cold, instead of coming from the cold.

Now, we got virus, but from Iran, as they attack data centers.

Try to wake up to a different world. A connected one. And in it, most of the truths and threats we once held as absolutes, have become irrelevant. Yesterday’s fear should not hold us hostage today. I am just holding up the mirror : modernity infects everyone on both sides.

Technology is agnostic. Now, instead of iron curtain, we got firewalls.

Instead of flu virus, we got Iran-originated virus.

John Le Carre or James Bond, all need to update their software version.

Sometimes the virus is in us. Our James Bond character finds himself recede into the dark corner of his own.

We are the bad guys as well. Just didn’t realize it.

Until someone  shows us who we truly are. Mr Bond, tear down that curtain.

Stay hungry, stay curious

The first advice was from Jobs, a college drop-out, in his commencement speech.

The second, recently, was the gist of a NYT op-ed by Brooks.

Those are mantels of would-be entrepreneurs.

Where else can you find people who are willing to sleep (if at all) in sleeping bags and code for days on end, with no prospect of a pay check?

Interns for life.

Meanwhile, exchange students protested inhuman “trafficking” at Hershey‘s outsourcing arm.

No more sweet spot there at sweet factory (after the students realized that taken in all the expenses, they ended up working for free). Interns for life.

At least they learn a thing or two about voicing their opinion within the confine of  the law.

We finally enter an age where muscles and machines (physical layer) are counted less than mind (application layer). A recent WSJ most-read by a VC guru was all about “software eating everyone’s lunch”.

Just try to fight drones, or robot cops.

BTW, it’s been a lost decade, with 9/11 as one bookend ( the two planes knocking down the Twin towers), and  the other, two helicopters (albeit one was left behind) getting back at Bin laden. It is to show how much harm done by one man’s hyper-imagination, and how much good our collective brain are capable of (a recent Tampa youth just wanted to copy Columbine, instead of applying to Columbia).

Stay hungry, stay curious. Drop out if you lack the passion for staying in (a Venture capitalist argued just that when he offered a contest for new ideas from would-be entrepreneurs, college degree  not required).

But stay curious. There are a lot of unknown unknowns out there. Learn to connect the dots, and recognize the patterns. Spot the trends.

And don’t forget to stay curious even when you were no longer hungry.

Because someone will eat your lunch before you know it. Borders, HP (computer division) and Nokia, have all learned this hard lesson. No rest for the weary. Not in this century.

Not when machines like Watson can start “swamping”, guessing your next move.

And quit when you are ahead, like Steve Jobs. Learn calligraphy. Learn something about something. Stay curious.

Starting a joke

50 years ago,  you would have been chased out of the pub had you painted these scenarios: the US can’t wait to open off-shored manufacturing centers, Gaga as a mermaid on wheelchair, and 90% of the population will shop at Wal-Mart, stocked with 99% Made-in-China merchandise. Dude, in the 60’s, we were living the American Dream.

No one would imagine just in 5 decades that we have debt ceiling; congress woman, shot, survived and stood up to cast her vote; (BL) got taken down while a Nordic Crusader took down people for their opposing view.

Not groovy man, you would say.

Like Austin Powers, you wake up, assuming gas stations still have full-serve (yes, but it’s the homeless man). Don’t you miss the bell and the man in clean Esso overall?

You could start a joke, but the joke was on you.

It doesn’t  take long for someone to ring the alarm bell (Putin called the US consumers “parasites”).

It’s like a line in Neil Young‘s album “I have been to Redwood, I have been to Hollywood…

in search for a heart of gold and I am getting old”.

It takes that long for a generation to process the stages of grief: imperial status right after WWII, to upheavals at home and abroad (assassination of the Kennedy’s brothers and the Diem’s brothers), to Cold War unraveling and Gulf War overstretched. Now, the hard cold reality of a dried credit market (consumer spending registered near zero growth) stands erect like a new Berlin Wall (East where 99 percent of us are living, and West, the other 1%). In Admiral Mullen’s words, “Debt is our greatest security threat.”

You could tell the 60’s Ivy League‘s kids were well-off e.g. bell-bottom pants and Indian-shirts, and all hair. At least, there was a middle class.

On some YouTube clips, you could still detect that the audience “tenue de soiree” to attend Francoise Hardy‘s concerts.(Tous les garcons et les filles): turtle-neck and leather jackets.

Most could afford a trip to Woodstock (which turned out to be free anyway).  And many if not all would take part in binge drinking before, during and after the football games. Senior panic was meant for landing a mate, not a job (now, it’s the opposite).

The future back then was in “plastic” (the Graduate). It was supposed to give rise to companies like 3M , but also, VISA and Master Card (both plastic).

Now, we have Tencent, and Facebook.

Apple’s war chest is larger than the US treasury.

What a joke. Who started it? Dr Evil calls a meeting: “Let’s hold the world hostage, for 2 Million”.

No wonder President Obama had to emphasize that the savings from the newly imposed 54-mile-per- gallon vehicles, would be in the range of 2 Trillion dollars, “with a T.”

50 years is not a long time, but it allows for many changes, exponentially. Don’t blame it on China (or Moore’s Law).

They didn’t even get started until 1979.

It’s a confluence of factors, mostly caused by the rise of the Rest intersecting the decline of the West. The best could happen to our Austin Powers is to step back into the time-machine, hoping for a better reentry point in the multipolar future.

Choppers that chop the seas

The news of Premier Nguyen Cao Ky passed away brought back a long time passing.

In my youth, the sound of hovering helicopters was as common as street vendors’ chants.

On the war’s last day, ambassador, flag, ground-keepers, pilots and anything that moved, tried to get out to International Waters . Buses, barges and yes, choppers.

Lone pilots angled and abandoned choppers, then swam for aircraft carriers.

Their last sortie. (Years later, I met a man in New Orleans who found work as a commercial pilot for an oil company, transferable skill set I would say).

But on that fateful day, the choppers chopped the seas. One helicopter force-landed and hit our barge’s sandbagged wall. The loosed blades then flew wildly toward our ship, the USS Blue Ridge. I lied head down but eyes glued to the scene of action. That same barge had been our home for the previous 24 hours. Floating barge and flying blades was my brush with war and death.

Words circulated that many, VP Cao Ky included, went to Guam, where they had erected tents for refugees. For us, who ended up in Wake Island, we spent a purgatorial summer (“Do you know, where you’re going to” theme from the Mahogany). One of our folk singers sang for free to keep up our morale. She just came up short of singing “by the  river of Babylon…there we sat down and wept”.

I overheard “Band on The Run” by McCartney  from the barrack next door.

Not sure that was fitting or insulting. After all, I have spent the last three decades and a half trying to live down deserter’s guilt.

On a recent trip to Vietnam, a drunk at the table even screamed in my face that I was no longer a Vietnamese.

The burden must have been heavier for those who had invested more in the conflict (Cold War, but hot spots) e.g. the likes of Premier Cao Ky.

Occasionally, the two sides – reconciliators and extremists – were still at it.

We should put on the Holllies’ He Ain’t Heavy.

That’s how it will end. And how everything eventually ends, with time. My narrative just happened to be accompanied by the sound of choppers normally associated with Vietnam. One thing VP Cao Ky showed us and the world, was that, despite the hefty death toll and billions of dollars spent on bullets and agent Orange (later, he was resettled in Orange County), one still needs to live out one’s life, flamboyant or faced down. Army divisions used to distinguish themselves by various colors of their scarfs (red for paratroopers, green for Green Berets, so it’s not unusual for pilots and stewardess to pick their colors as well).

When you are near death on a daily basis, the least you can do for yourself is to look in the mirror, and say “not today”.

That today finally came for him, at age 80, and as fate would have it, resting in peace near South China Sea. But for many of us, “band on the run”, we live on to be memory keepers, story tellers and hopefully history-makers. It’s interesting to note that the younger generation tends to be more careful and conservative (model minorities) while their predecessors lived their lives in flying colors (go on YouTube, and click on any bands of the 60-70, like Chicago), least of which, a purple scarf, from a former Vietnamese pilot. Band on the run. Leader of the band dies today. The music, however, plays on. War and Peace. Dogmatism and pragmatism. Man and machine, romantic and robotic, pilot and chopper, laid to rest at Vietnam War epilogue. For me, not today. Not yet.

Someday, they will excavate in the South China Seas, and find hundreds of choppers, one of which without blades. Further excavation on the outer ring will find millions of skulls (boat people). They are all there, hidden underneath, but, still served as reminders of the long Cold War that took its heavy toll both in men and materials (choppers).