Tag: Future

2012 Bookmarking

I used to rely on researchers like the Tofflers (Future Shock) to “see” into the future.

For instance, the pro-sumer trend, the mismatching speeds among various sectors ( IT, Financial, Educational, Governmental…in that order).

Lately, all I came across in Futurism was 2012 prophecy .

Like it or not, this year will have come down as a special year, if not, end of an era.

Let me explain.

We had a bloody closure on a terrible event which Tom Wolfe ably put “New York got knocked out of its two front teeth”. Then, Sandy rinsed through the Big Apple as if to complete this dental procedure.

Up North, we buried school kids died not of their own choices.

In today’s NYT Op-Ed, Father Kevin was quoted as saying “we are God’s presence to extend Mercy incarnate to one another”.

2012 marked a year full of flood and blood.

Dark Night Rises, while  we hardly hear George Harrison‘s Heres Comes the Sun.

I wish I can still rely on the likes of Tofflers to point out where our technological society is heading.

But then, while focusing on I-phone, I-pad and I-pod, we forgot the I-ndividual.

Consumer or Prosumer, the individual loves, laughs and learns.

When the power is out, and the water level keeps rising, people suffer.

Don’t tell me it’s war time (which somehow makes suffering a matter of fate).

It’s peace time. And we can’t handle the truth, still.

The truth is: we are victims of our own progress. We live too long, consume too much and complain far too little (venting does not affect change)

I love technology when it humanizes our society. It carries us to far-away places. But technology makes it too easy for kids to take down kids (compare to No Easy Day – set in Pakistan – Newtown shooting was far too Easy a day).

I know we will soon rid of the keyboard, mouse and monitor. The technology has already been beta-tested. Those are good stuff.

Softwares continue to rule the day.

James Bond already paired up with a much younger whiz, while his boss is nearing retirement. Signs of the time.

What it is ain’t exactly clear.

But if we don’t hear Here Comes the Sun, at least I suggest we click on “It don’t come easy“. Always with a price. Insurance companies are quick to spread the liabilities and costs, but slow to recompense.

Same with everything else. Statement comes due. Rent is up. It don’t come easy. But somehow, being “mercy incarnate” to one another doesn’t come at all. We barely grasp the concept much less putting it into practice. Yet other “right” such as the right to bear arms, has been built-in as second nature. I propose another amendment: next to the right to bear arms is the responsibility to pay for the victims killed by arms.

No Farewell to Arms. Own them, but just realize, like other technologies, everything comes with a price. Why should someone’s kids be your target practice. And why should civilized society be forced to make an U-turn back to Pre-Khan Mongolian era to pamper the rights of a few (9 guns out of every ten Americans). 2012. Something about that number.

Hate it or like it, we still have a few more days before Count Down. Have a “closure” weekend. Remember to plug-in your electronic devices, and while at it, plug yourself in as well. We need to be recharged as much as those things we have created.

Fit for Future

Some live behind their times. Others ahead of them.

Tesla was definitely of the latter.

Wireless was his thing. Lincoln was another forward-thinker, enabler and en-actor  of abolition.

Our next hero is poised to deliver us from oil dependency.

That day will come, as surely as the sun rises in the East and set in the West.

The Earth will heal itself and the penguins will have kept their playground.

Just zoom out from history and take a look.

Unintended consequences happened. Columbus got lost on his way to India.

Mr Watson, come here (first phone call).

Last Saturday, at BALQON, we heard from the owner himself how he had made history: EV tow-trucks.

It could be done. And being done (freeing up the National transport fleet from oil dependency, at least 75%).

To prepare for the future, one sacrifices the present.

Think of SEAL or SAT  training etc…

One goal, one mind.

Fit for the future.

Nobody can beat the man whose mind was made up.

This is how he/she envisions the future.

And work backward from there.

What missing ingredients? What help to be solicited? Where would the resources be to make it happen?

Essentially, change agents are artists themselves: creating something out of nothing, ex-nihilo.

One main reason some of us don’t “fit in”, is because we are supposed to fit for other times.

We and they just don’t realize it.

When it’s time to go (die), these people are glad to depart, because their playground isn’t primarily Earth-bound.

Just passing through.

Meanwhile, we are beneficiaries of others’ invention, reformation and creation (a kid in China today enjoys playing Cityville on his/her I-pad, unaware of how many versions of fast computing prototypes the company went through to get there).

He or she simply builds on this baseline.

The rise of the rest.

It will never be enough. Never completely satisfied. This triggers a new wave of progress.

Fear of the Boogie Man or Dracula, for instance will be replaced by fear of the alien, life from outer space etc… From children’s fantasy to futuristic breakthrough. We will leave the past behind, the seen for the unseen. Be fit for the future.

Trust again

People with bad experiences go through various phases in recovery.

Some need a lifetime. Others could trust again in no time.

All depends how the mind plays tricks. If pain recedes deep into long-term memory, then it takes longer to process pain.

Short or long-term memory, bad experiences stay. They surface on unsuspected occasion (Murphy’s Law).

Mine is about to happen again. The post-traumatic disorder. The pain of separation, of loss and of reunion.

It has been a long time . Long enough to look at it with academic detached eyes. Culture shock, reverse culture shock and personal acceptance.

No one can undo his or her past. No one can predict his/her future.

Only the moment. Cherish it. The usual. That predictable cup of coffee. A familiar face in the crowd. One simple joy of a child’s smile. Trust again.

Music often evokes those feelings e.g. a broken relationship, a lost connection.

Pain of an unraveled relationship.

People hurting people. Policies that destroy instead of building up.

Mistakes committed and opportunities lost.

We fear not new things. We fear that new things will evoke or add to bad memories.

We project the past unto the unknown. We no longer want to take risks.

To trust again.

Could that place, this person do me any good? Or just harm?

Leave me alone and let me retire to familiar pain.

Institutions often fall into this trap as well. Back to basics. Back to safe practices. Operating on marginal cost etc….Yet as counter-intuitive as it may seem, to survive, institution and individual need to take risks (The Innovator’s Dilemma).  Life is like riding the bicycle, so you need to keep moving ahead, says Einstein.

So I charge ahead. Trust again. And say a prayer. This morning. This moment.

This very day. That’s the only moment in time I am granted to grow and learn. And to trust again.

3D and 4G

At the most elementary level, we got the chip set.

That is about to change, from “flat like a sheet of paper”” to 3D chip, announced Intel (which made Applied Materials jump to its 3.9 Billion acquisition of Varian Semiconductor to keep pace).

Our world is about to change once again, not to the tune of 10 Billion by 2100, but 10 Billion people communicating at the speed of thoughts. At this rate of growth, we can see 3D printing soon to be a norm.

You think that self-check-out at Wal-Mart is bad. Think again. Someday, we might end up ordering an item, only to have it print out at home (watch out UPS).

We’ve got “make your own stuff animal” stores and self-serve ice-cream machines.

Our homes are about to become mini-factories, and stay-at-home dads, in-sourced blue-collar workers (Dad, I want fresh bread. Dad, please squeeze the OJ. Dad, grind the coffee beans, please).

It’s only fitting that the last known WWI vet died leaving behind a changed world.

The US itself, in order to stay in the lead, will have to become world incubator of innovation and ideas.

CNN’s United States of Innovation (51 ideas from 51 states).

Think heat-sensor technology, facial recognition, speech recognition, drone, SPAM prevention, social marketing, Facebook/Skype , Utube and YouTube. None had been around when Bill Gates penned “At the speed of thoughts” (as of this edit, MSC announced it would buy Skype at the tune of 8 Billion dollars).

Now we have professors talking about $300 houses for the bottom 2 Billion (the last time, they couldn’t make a $300 computer). Incidentally, the Hyundai’s Excel got its start in the US at the price of $5,000 where the Nano’s starting price is.

To sustain innovation, we need clusters (and luckily, from the trajectory of history, our times seems to be one of those according to Steven Johnson in “Where good ides came from”). Clusters such as Seattle, San Francisco and Austin.

A little dose of music, art and literature, mixed with a heavy dose of tech, geeks, and flower children (rebellious streak).

Ironically, people who are into their own world (eccentric) are not people who can soup up for a fund-raising session with VC’s.

For now, commoners like me can’t wait to see what comes out of 3D chip set and 4-G broadband.

When all those dark fibers got lit up, and cloud servers turned on , let the show begin.

Like Back-to-the-Future scene, we might get blown away. I suspect that won’t be the case. Change will come sporadically, with an app peppered here, and a tweaking there. Before we know it, we can design and print our own T-shirts at home.

That’s  what makes Chinese authorities awake at night. What are they going to do with the over-invested infrastructure we now call, world factory. And all the men, unemployed, then, already experienced a bite at the proverbial apple (the middle-class life style). History always reserves its best twist of plot for the end. I wish I be around to witness it, like our WWI last known pilot. RIP man of the greatest generation who lived and fought in a pure mechanical universe. We all need to have 2-D chip before 3-D, PSTN before Skype. “Hello, if you hear the sound of your own recording, you are on, for free”.