Tag: Hummer

Trading down: Gap to Goodwill

You know how good the economy is by seeing how many Hummers are on the street. But we 2.5 per cent growth 1Q 2013, we go from Hummers to Hyundai, from Gap to Goodwill.

With 90% debt level, half-a-million debt per man woman and child, trading down is the least of our worries (Patriotic millionaires asked to pay more tax, instead of token donation of used computers or running shoes for write off).

Meanwhile, BRIC countries push up energy and environmental demand resulting in higher food costs.

Every summer, a bunch of senior citizens died of head exhaustion in their lonely Chicago apartments.

We said Goodbye to Dr Death. You can catch Al Pacino portraying him on HBO.

Here is our near-term play-outs : consumers retrenching i.e. value-shopping (Costco, Wal-Mart), the reincarnation of IKEA (renters nation) and office furniture, DIY online shopping (prosumerism meets e-com). In Micro Trends, the author already noted the return of knitting among teens.

The productivity movement is moving out of high-end enterprise, down to SME and public-sector (right!).

And the return of pig-ear antenna in our living rooms (Archie Bunker).

At the conclusion of President Obama town-hall style at Facebook, CEO Mark Zuckerberg offered his signature hooded sweat saying “in case you want to dress like me” (the joke in context was that President Obama was the only one who made Mark sweated out in suit and tie).

Japanese business men were asked to dress down to save energy.

If you are familiar with Japanese business protocol, you will know how off-script this is (loosening a tie while partying already was too much. Now they are in Hawaiian shirts).

Brazil, however, has no problem with these new austerity measures: they look at this as a prolonged extension of their Mardi Gras. So much for trading down in post-Recession era.

Just make sure to buy supplies in bulk. And no traveling this summer to ease energy pressures. No wonder online ad spending is on track to double-digit grow. That’s where the action is. And where talents are flocking into, one recruitment tweet (CV) at a time. Even resume email service has disappeared as twitter now takes over. Elevator speech has “traded down”.

Time to change

Change bears a different connotation to different people.

In the 60’s, change threatened the status quo (Hell No, we won’t go).

It’s inevitable that we need to adapt (from jukebox to boombox, from paper-back book to e-book).  A few years from now, we would rather be dead than getting caught carrying  a hard-back book (today’s equivalence of carrying a brick phone w/pull-out antenna).

In fact, leadership is all about change management: take R or L at the fork in the road (yahoo)

take both (Cisco), or take the one less traveled (Robert Frost).

Change has been equated with letting go. But it’s not. It’s being adaptive and relevant.

Downgrading, downshifting, downsizing and retrenching.

The exact reversal of the 80’s “trading up”.

In the Hummer and the Mini, the author tries to point out the paradox in taste and style. At the present time, we might have to do away with Hummers altogether

(have you noticed gas prices lately).

And there is forced change e.g. aging, empty nesting or season change whose cold front disrupts our holiday travel. Here in Florida, they use helicopters to bring down warmer temperature to protect crops (same technology was used during the Vietnam War to spray Agent Orange to destroy crops).

The positive side of aging is maturity. Having been there and done that, one detects a familiar pattern (deja vu) and can easily connect the dots (for instance, Haiti and Vietnam both had some French influence. This makes easy for the Vietel engineers to connect with locals while trying to rebuild Haitian telecom infrastructure.)

Unfortunately, the path of least resistance is often the path most taken. It saves time when everything is in place, the same place (efficiency model). Have you noticed that as creatures of habits, we always congregate around the fire-place (or TV, its modern-day replacement) and water cooler at work (or the conference-room speaker phone). But that’s our pre-Google false sense of comfort.

Now that the transformation to digital is almost complete, we must embrace minimalist life style (watch out Good Will and Salvation Army, you will have to expand your warehouses).  Digital natives will not give a second thought (since they are not attached to things non-digital) before junking that jukebox or that Polaroid.

We are change managers. And managers must decide what’s important and what’s urgent, what stays and what goes. Most importantly, from future vantage point looking back, will today’s decision hold? Are we being self-disruptive enough or face forced change?

The more we want to stay the same, the more we will have to change. Or just sit there and get run over by the train.

And that time is now.

It’s a good IKEA

A billion+  prospects. Wow!

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-ikea25-2009aug25,0,3900096,full.story

IKEA in China. More  a  theme park then a show room.

They try, they buy.

Today it’s the A/C and ambience.

Tomorrow, it will be CHIKEA everywhere (not only the font, but spelling change as well!).

One thing China does well is to mass-produce these household items on the scale hard to compete with.

But IKEA will keep reinventing itself, tossing in a satin pillow here and a straw basket there to create the right look and feel for the place. After all the construction “bad” loans comes interior decoration.

China, a hyper power of consumerism. The force of the unleashing wallet.

By 2020, we can expect a new generation of male child, mostly over fed and under exercised (due to the proliferation of automobiles and computer gaming) all want to start their own Alibaba or Baidu.

IKEA would then have to move up the value chain to accommodate Hummer drivers and Lenovo users (or suffer the fate of Sears, whose catalogue was first, just as IKEA’s now the most printed).

It made so much sense to see the Chinese bid for Unoco 76 gas and once failed, they hit the Safari trail in search for oil.

Young overseas Chinese workers will come home with a wealth of knowledge, having been exposed to the latest and greatest from abroad. While at home, their counterparts are still seen napping at the IKEA’s A/C theme parks.

Either the world is coming to China, or China will go out to the world. The Olympic is just a start. Central Casting is on a

look out for a new bad guy to play the role of   X as  “made in X” .

Back in the late 70’s, we used to laugh at “made in Japan” automobiles (remember the Datsun?)

I vote for the Made-in-China solar panels though.

They are quick to smell money-making opportunities. Either that or they will have to ship their workers overseas, as they did with trucks and cars during the pre-Olympic months to “clear out” the smog in Beijing.

Necessity is the Mother of Invention. Solar panel, at this time, is a good IKEA.