Tag: Singapore

Risks and Rewards

As the saying goes, you’ve got to enter the lion’s den to get the lion. No pain no gain.

Taking risks is not something for everyone. After all, we have all the safety measures built-in to our system: from seat-belts to “frisk-machines”.

Yet, in business as in life, risk is part of life, just like death itself.

Risk is associated with fear. When consumer’s sentiment is said to be “healthy”, it means people are more willing to borrow and invest. In short, to spend.

When it is low, it means greed is suppressed by fear.

Spint has just completed its purchase of Clearwire.

It has been a long ordeal.

Back in 1999-2000, these enormous acquisitions would involve much more risks, yet much less time.

(Ebert, number 4 Worldcom purchased number 2 MCI by stocks).

It was a wild ride.

Then the dot.com burst.

The key here is spectrum.

We move very fast on the ground (wireline) and in the air (wireless).

ICT on steroid.

With strong appetite for risks, which requires strong stomach as well.

No risks, no rewards.

In Asia, we got Singapore, India which showed strong leaderships, capable of risk-taking (social engineering and IT, respectively).

Before 1997 Asian crisis, these countries were looked upon as Miracles.

Leadership is lonely at the top.

Unintended consequences and the urge to take the path of least resistance will undo any bold moves.

If a leader has chosen all the safe paths since college (taking courses that would ensure an A, and a career that was well paid with least sacrifice), then the result would be leadership who is risk-advert.

Play politics.

Becoming all things to all men.

Catering to the whim and wishes of the majority to win votes.

That’s their rewards: popularity and being well-liked.

But risk takers have a different play book. Not foolish risk, but calculated one.

Gut-checking. With a lump in the throat. Screw it, let’s do it.

Those who take risks also face fear just like anyone else.

But went ahead and made the call anyway.

It’s called judgment and maturity.

It’s called, for the lack of a better word, Execute.

And it’s an art, with lots of practice and pain-taking efforts.

Not without consequences, among which unpopularity.

No risks, no progress (think of the Challenger).

Think of Marconi and his wintry towers.

Think of all-solar crosscountry flight (Amelia Earhart would be proud).

Think of Hoover Dam.

And millions of inventors and risk-takers who lost their shirts. And in the case of the owner of Segway, his life.

No risks, no rewards.

World on wheels

You want to see wheels at work, you come to Saigon.

(Baby) strollers, scooters, (food) stalls, all on wheels.

But instead of having you walk up to a vending machine, here the merchandise come to you. Ladies in cone hats would walk about with all sorts of knickknacks on their shoulders: toe clippers, wallets, key chains etc….

At night, snack vendors come around the neighborhood, waking everyone up.

“Banh gio”.  KFC, Pizza, Hot noodle bowls all delivered on wheels.

It’s a 24/7 world on wheels. Rolling, rolling, rolling on the river.

They finally put the canal fences up, but the “river doesn’t flow through it”.

Saigon used to be known as the Pearl of the Orient.

Neither Paris nor London, Saigon is a synthesis of every strand and shape. Young people from the country side pour in and mix in to form a kaleidoscope. It is as if the old energy from a mix of Cambodian and Chinese were not enough. Now with young and old, East and West, it is transformed into something unrecognizable. Perhaps a Singapore of the next century.

I live next door to a young couple. Their son is just one year old, barely taking baby steps. In the morning, mom would be walking vending machine. In the afternoon, Dad would walk around shoe-shining. The boy is well cared for. The boy has just got a toy automobile for Christmas. The young couple were discussing about buying a Nokia phone.

The future of Saigon. Of Vietnam. Soon they would save up enough for a scooter. Nuclear family on wheels. The kid after all had already got his wheels.

World on wheels.

Trash or Treasure

With 50% youth unemployment in Spain, front-page news showed dumpster diving photos.

It shouldn’t be. But it is. Life is difficult, says Scott Peck.

And since when was it easy?

For years, I put myself in a selfless orbit which , at times, has done much damage to myself (self-sabotage).

My appetite for risks and adventure, for sacrifice and heroism, got me in a bit of trouble.

In short, I have been addicted to adrenaline. Life on the edge, hanging and dangling on the cliff,  literally, on the last day of  a Wilderness Survival course in the White Mountain of New Hampshire.

Now, seeing men in Spain,  not in white and red bandanas having fun at the running of the bulls (which I would like to be doing, adrenaline and all), but dumpster-diving (which I definitely can’t see myself doing), I prefer being chased by the  bulls than the bears.

Are we in a battle against modernity itself? How come I-phone 5 is in short supply, but workers in Spain are not?

What is the real benefits of globalization and modernization in its present form?

Who dare to pose the real and hard questions and to whom?

Democratizing unemployment?

The rhetoric has been to “flatten” the process of wealth distribution via technology and globalization. But hard data point to a much different conclusion: the  top 1% got richer by the day, and more are joining their ranks.

Go figure!

We will soon reach 9-Billion (2050). Will there be enough energy and food for consumption?

Enough I-phone and whatever comes after “I” for everyone? Malthus revival.

The Third wave of civilization is descending on us so quickly (as described aptly via Moore’s Law) that we can’t handle the truth (agricultural and industrial waves took off not as quickly as the information age’s hockey-stick growth).

I remember discussions in some circles that one day, we would all have a bar code imprinted on our foreheads.

Scan me. Zap me.

Brand me. The Who would have to change their  “See me, Feel me” anthem.

But for now, you can’t seem to get through a day without some guy (even gal) asking for a hand out.

Brother, can you spare a dollar (used to be a dime) “Anh cho xin mot dong” (in multi-language).

Inflation hit everyone, from Seoul to Spain, Singapore to Shanghai.

At least, in collective societies of the East, people can squeeze in around the table (round) for a dip in the rice bowl. The strength of Western individualism (Robinson Crusoe) has finally faced its logical conclusion: I can find food, as long as you help keep the trash bin cool and clean. Why all the post-industrial brains cannot come up with solar-powered refrigeration for the mass, where spare foods can be deposited there for those who are in desperate need (I have seen used clothing bins, but not food).

Combo number 1 or 2? They have always tried to sell you and I more fries than our bodies can take.

Meanwhile, the rain doesn’t stay mainly in Spain. Anyone with fresh eyes can see something is not going according to plan . Your trash, their treasure. Be grateful, but then be outrageous. We need your rage.

Social boosters

We stand on the shoulders of giants: wheel, movable types, steam engines, electricity and the internet.

Now Iphone 5.

Larger screen, one extra row of icons, aerial and panoramic view.

Information on the go.

I can rattle on.

We are at a point when our ways (technology) are growing faster than our use (apps).

Because of the Iphone 5  panoramic view, am I to travel to the Grand Canyon to take advantage of this new feature?

With Google Earth, do I keep looking at my ex’s house from out-of-state?

After a few trials, we will get bored and move pass new-toy stage.  Not that I am ungrateful.

I do, however, appreciate all the help I have got, as once said, “it took a village”.

My Acknowledgement page should be exhaustive: from parents to people I don’t get to see any more. But also the coffee vendor whose son I befriended during my last months in Vietnam.

People who day in and day out got up early, and get the coffee  hot and ready.

Social boosters.

I appreciate the invisible bakers and dishwashers. People who are portrayed in “Nickel and Dime”.

Soon, we will have fewer of those: milkman and mailman, paper boy and cable guy.

All the jobs seem to have been shipped somewhere else. End of  men.

The US retains high-touch high-value jobs while off-shoring its manufacturing base  (thus rendered irrelevant many civil-rights accomplishments such as EOE).

Latest indicators show Switzerland and Singapore in the top-tier, while the US and Japan trailing in  World Economy (competitiveness).

Still I miss and am grateful for social support, social interaction and yes, occasional social friction.

Now, we order things online, self-serve at the pump, mix our own soda drinks or ice cream flavors and even design our own T-shirts. We have morphed from being a Con-sumer to being a Pro-sumer (even the IT admin will soon be packing because of the iCloud, gas-station attendants because of the EV charging stations or cash-only kiosks. JetBlue, SouthWest both let passengers book their flights and self-checkin).

I  miss those social boosters. Where would I be today without them.

We stand on shoulders of giants, inventors of the past, but also on “nickel and dime” folks. Soon, we will have to say thanks to the machine, which seems to have beaten us to the punch.

1+1=3

Organizations go through many life cycles before winding down, or absorbed in a M&A.

Here in Vietnam, fluidity is the word that describes the dynamics of organization.

Like organism that evolves with its environment, organization here often bends and changes beyond recognition.

We know the solution is embedded in the problem.

Yet we need to affect change slowly.

Harmony is key.

Disruptive behavior is not encouraged.

Yet to grow, organization has to build disruption into its timeline.

As long as 1+1=3

Synergy.

Organizational change is a microcosm of a larger trend, similar to the rise of  BRICS.

The South-South axis will influence emerging nations much more than North-South Imperialistic past (as of this edit, there is a book out entitled “The End of Power”, in which the author argues that power is more fleeting and transient than ever before).

For instance, students from Vietnam are offered choices to study in Australia, Singapore and US.

Yet for financial reasons, they cannot pick US, their premier destination.

With option A, they come back only know Australia as the outside world.

Yet Australia takes its cue from the UK and North America.

Hence, two-step flow of cultural change.

This trickle-down effect is accelerated by the internet and network effect.

Voila! We got a borderless world, whether we like it or not.

Open U and Open Door.

All we need now is open mind, to welcome change.

Young mind will take in anything.

Just build, and they will come.

Be courageous, and be flexible.

1+1 might equal 4 here in Vietnam.

Middle-Income Trap

The phenomenon known as Middle-Income Trap is alive and well in SouthEast Asia.

Not all boats rise with the water. Contentment sets in and gets in the way of progress.

Countries like the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are  in this trap.

From a global perspective, they could do better if getting over the hump. Yet people are caught  with false sense of security (just a little bit over the Survival phase). No challenge, no progress.

Entrepreneurs, innovation and R&D? That’s a luxury one cannot afford here.

I went pass a Malaysian Educational Center here in HCMC. Apparently to get to Malaysia nowadays is already a step-up (then Singapore, Australia and/or US).

Vietnam needs to leapfrog to be in the forefront of science and technology, commerce and communication. FDI and Tourist dollars unfortunately landed mostly on infrastructure investment more than talent investment.

Its young people will need more than a dose of legislation. They need role models, encouragement and financial supports (to truly master English for Commerce and not just to pass a required placement test).

Encourage Life-Time-Learning.

Life-Time-Learning leads to Life-Time-Fulfillment. Middle-Income will be de facto results.

My hope and wish is for college students to master life’s skills, and to see the big picture, that of being a global citizen, where Many-to-Many is the new model and Pull, not Push, prevails.

Convenience and conservation

Plastic or paper?

Here or to-go?

Before we know it, billions of mindless decisions are made everyday. Taylorism (efficiency down to the smallest detail) has found its way into fast cars and fast food.

Even into our every-day use of language: just a sec, ASAP, bs.

There is no excuse for snappiness. We have stood by helplessly as McDonalization and Walmartization take over our planet.

A signage up, a tree down.

I am glad to hear that people here in Vietnam send back their equivalence of Christmas trees (Mai) back to nursery farms, where they will be replanted until next year.

In the States, only old folks get sent to hospice never to return home.

Out of sight, out of mind.

Every morning, outside my door, a man took a fast walk with his old dad.

I enjoyed watching them.

With reasonable guess, we can deduce that that man’s son will someday go with him on the same walk.

There is something in life that we cannot rush e.g. losing weight, growing deeper in a relationship, acquiring a new skill set (10,000 hours).

In college, I produced a TV spot on energy conservation.

People thought it was just a trend (back then, gasoline was still cheap, and Three Mile Island had not yet happened until I stumbled upon that scoop during my TV internship).

With tsunami and Fukushima behind us, we seem to take the so-called “tree huggers” a bit more serious.

It’s down to our every day’s choices: re-use a plastic bag, place the cigarette butts in proper places (especially in Singapore), and water the plants.

Some scientists are urging to reclassify sugar as toxic.

It seems as if we are all beginners at comprehending our planet.

The 80’s saw peak use of hair-dryers (and shoulder pads).

The 90’s water bottles and SUV‘s.

Just lately that hybrid cars started to gain some traction.

Just in time for Iran‘s rumble (hence, Venezuela‘s oil supplies as well).

Trees will still be here after we are long gone.

So those trees (cay Mai) will be back next year, delivered by the nursery just in time to bloom again for the year of the Snake.

Meanwhile our daily choices boil down to “paper or plastic”, “here or to-go”.

Sit there and eat. Save a bag, and save yourself some stress (of eating on the run). Don’t fall victim to the economy of scale (default choice is plastic and to-go). Defense!

I am growing liberal by the minute as the planet gets hotter by one degree at a time. Let me know when you found a tree-hugger. I will embrace him/her as well. Conservation takes work and thoughtfulness. Convenience just happens by default. I stand at the fork in the road, I take the road less traveled, says Frost.

Maybe all we need is time

Time heals all wounds.

It also ushers in a generation, now in high school and college.

Here in Vietnam, students have classes on Saturdays and even Sundays.

Kids of all ages, in uniforms or out of, but always with a backpack, riding on wheels of all types: bikes, electric bikes, scooters, sedans, and

buses.

They shop at night markets where there are food stalls, snacks stalls and magazine stalls.

Life in the fast lane (the only time I slow down is when I jaywalk across a busy street).

I have tried to put Vietnam in a box, but so far it’s been in vain: not scooter nation, not helmet nation, not multi-tasker nation.

I know one clear difference between life here vs in the US: your survival instinct better kicks in quick (Maslow‘s basic need).

Because it’s noisy, dusty and hot, people want to cocoon themselves in A/C  cul-de-sacs.

Common use of language also helps people cope: “choi” (play aspect) is inserted in every other sentence: “choi troi”, “choi chu”, “choi noi”, “choi luon” (upstage, wordy, flashy and go all the way).

Give Vietnam some time.

It will soon get to be a nation of 100 million, whose population is evenly distributed in a bell shape.

The UN person, Mehta, warned Vietnam about the “middle-income trap”.

They have seen it happen with Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

The trends are there for Vietnam to grow.  Next step is to harness growth to produce desired outcomes. It’s not accidental that the former leader of Singapore was invited to speak here quite often.

He knew a thing or two about realizing a nation’s dream.

Maybe all we need is time. Some watch trains go by, all of their lives. Watching and wondering how others met and make it last. (courtesy of Stephen Bishop).

Vietnam, next Hong Kong?

On my first trip to Hong Kong summer 1981, I was taken in by the energy and entrepreneurial spirit there.

A camera shop (pre-Iphone era) next to a watch shop (again, pre-Ipad era) next to an electronics store.  Shoppers from India, Europe, Australia were all there, bustling about. Double-deck buses (still under British colonial rule) moved to and fro from Kowloon to Sham Shui Po.

China‘s Champs ELysees.

And that’s 30 years ago.

Now, boarding a bus in Saigon, full of college students from the University of Industry, I saw Vietnam‘s future 30 years from now.

Every kids on that bus ( with Samsung phones) will start a business or work for MNC companies, which will surely be coming (when wage pressures increase in China and water level rises again in Thailand).

In fact, Quang Trung Software Park is holding a conference on that very same topic (Human resources, mostly ICT, in a flat world).

Thailand wants to play a lead role in connecting and collaborating at this gathering.

Alliances for a planned and collaborative future (who is going to be the next Hong Kong or Singapore?)  Indeed, Manpower and other HR agencies have sprung up all over town. With hard and soft skills, one can command a decent wage here.

The living condition leaves much to be desired however : supermarket is located next to a dry dirty river, for instance. But all that can and will be fixed in time. Right now, younger learners are enrolled in foreign-own classes, picking up an expression here and a tune there.

My relative sent his daughter to the US to complete high school, Singapore to finish college and now to Australia for graduate school.

Stories like this put Vietnam on the path toward becoming another Hong Kong , while Hong Kong itself has moved up the value chain (per NYT Friedman) to full service economy, “off-shoring” its manufacturing further up North.

In other words, if those “Boat People” were to arrive today and be allowed to go off camp to work, they would be at a total loss, as opposed to work off-book in the garment industry as back then (“tailored in Hong Kong”).

Back to ICT as a way out

Young people naturally pick up new skills faster than older workers.

This is especially true for language-acquisition.

Once we can integrate the two camps (business savvy vs tech savvy) we are on our way to a promising future.

I notice primary schools and Universities here have started an all-English curriculum,  Vietnam’s latest attempt to copy the Asian Tiger miracle. Private universities are busy constructing “campuses” modeled after counterparts overseas (Hoa Sen, Tan Tao ), still have to shuttle students to and fro on chartered buses to city’s outskirts.

Countries like Taiwan, Singapore and S Korea have all traveled that road.

The raw materials are present, as evident from my bus ride which was all of a sudden empty after the drop off  at the main campus. Franchise concept has taken hold here: sticky rice chain, sugarcane juice chain, KFC chain, Lotteria chain and Tous Les Jours.

Being a “virgin” market has some pluses. Investors can’t wait to stake out location, location, location and brand positioning.

But the locals will learn the ins and outs of good and bad use of capitals.

(23 things they don’t tell you about capitalism by Chang).

The solution: go ahead with caution, but still move ahead speedily when  opportunity presents itself.

Just the way heavy traffic is here . Just the way people are moving about in Vietnam now. Just the way I saw in Hong Kong then.

Xerox, Yahoo and Google

With the exception of Yahoo, we can pretty much use the other two as verbs i.e. to Xerox s/t or to Google it.

When your company is a household “action” verb, you have it made.

Yahoo got a head start, with strong brand recognition.

But it flounders (even MySpace, as cool as it once was, couldn’t escape this mayhem).

AOL, Yahoo and MySpace belong to Web 1.0 era, the Valley’s equivalent of Big Band music.

We are commemorating the 10th anniversary of 9/11.

And candidates from both parties are now running for 2012.

Get a move on.

Don’t believe me? just Google it.

The speed of data processing and forced “choice architecture” results in shorter attention span.

We can’t recall but the top 3 (Incidentally,  World Economic Forum ranked the US as number 5 this year, after Switzerland, Singapore and Sweden).

Here in the US, we can’t even use the old Avis motto (We’re number 2, we work harder).

What belong to the previous decade stays with the previous decade.

No one could predict the rise of Singapore back in 1967 (or China in 1978).

In fact, much of the criticism was about its attempt at social engineering (match making its college educated).

Now, it’s number 2 and keeps working harder.

If I were to draft US policies, I would Xerox its road map, after Googling it.

This tiny country in Asia miraculously catapults into the big league.

If you understood how culturally advanced Sweden was, you would be able to appreciate the enormity of Singapore accomplishment.

Its secret sauce, turns out to be a right mix of social control and laissez faire .

Throw in a strong-handed leadership doesn’t hurt (remember Clinton had to plead so the gum-thrashing kid wouldn’t get spanked).

I wonder any of the folks who were on TV last night, purported to hold a recipe for recovery,

had ever set foot on this tiny island called “Sing” (short for Singapore)

or known precisely where it was.

Thank God for Google Map. Now, xerox it.