Enduring trends

Technologists are enthusiasts. Their progress are documented in hockey-stick trends. Meanwhile  we as ordinary human are still reacting out of fear as if we were still living in caves. The reptilian brain vs rapid rise of chip speed, guns vs germs, technology vs anthropology!

As early as 1950’s, graduates would hear something like: “boy, you get that desk job, stay there, work your way up and cash out . You will be set, boy.” In short, seniority and being an institutional memory keeper equal “iron rice bowl”.

Not in the 21 century. Take Yahoo. A darling of Silicon Valley (I am still using yahoo mail, reliable), but increasingly, moving into the slot left vacant by AOL. (Facebook, if not careful, might fall into the MySpace hole).

When I took Science, Technology and Society at Penn State in my senior year, I realized then that not all technology were meant to take off, or were a blessing. They are both blessing and curse. (I must give the US Post Office some credits for converting its entire fleet to Electric Vehicles a years back).

These trends will stay with us:

– socks (short or long)

– jeans

– baby pics, mobile apps

– slow rock (romantic)

– sunset, virtual or real

– kind words, kind gesture, roses

– birthday cakes

– tomb stones or equivalent if cremated

– shoes, shorts and sandals

– contact lenses (as flat screens)

– vitamins, although God knows what they put in there.

The Economist has its cover story this week about our human body, as composed of bacteria cells.

But how come those bacteria got vibrated with Streisand’s Evergreen? With Nocturne? Chopin and Bach?

Until technologists learned that we are more complex than the mind can understand, then they get somewhere.

Invent only that which benefits mankind, stuff that people can use. Don’t chase lab stuff only. Solve  problems:

how to get your hair done the quickest way in the morning, how to get to work using the best route, nearest gas station that charges less (or use EV) glove compartment that can store today’s aviation sun glasses, games that kids can play and learn something while at it, profile  algorithms that make friends out of strangers. Science, Technology and Society. When they plugged in the electricity for the first time at the Chicago fair, many thought it had been Heaven. Now, we took it for granted. Let’s hope for some break-through, even when many will fail. Try again. Keep in mind, the reptilian brain. How we still react like cavemen. Still love like cavemen. And yes, jealousy still is a big part. Those are enduring trends you can bet on.

Twitter and Twister

The later brought destruction to the Mid_West, but its impact is immediate, albeit regional.

The former more dangerous, simmering and long-tailed.

140 characters are more than enough to assassinate a character, his/her reputation which is built up over a life time.

Be careful.

Social malaise not social media in the wrong hands.

Not enough post, people don’t recognize your brand.

Too much, they are bored and become anesthetized.

We are living in parallel worlds: Twitter‘s and Twister‘s.

Digital and analog.

Both are real, as real as what’s floating and flowing through our heads.

With Twitter, we can edit, and control.

We leave our marks in the world.

140 characters at a time.

( I am at an internet cafe near Tan Son Nhut Airport. A baguette vendor just walked by to take order. Talking about digital and analog!).

Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn have become part of our digital life. The trinity came on the scene only half a decade ago.

During that time, we have had the housing crisis, and its reverberation.

Nature shed its blood, shakes its fist and shred some fat.

Survival of the fittest (MySpace, Kodak).

I must give it to Levis. During and after the Gold Rush, the unintended consequence was Levis jeans.

Winners and losers, but Levis always wins.

Now, gold diggers and gold traders are wearing them to.

We play the game of Island survival to exercise “forced choices”. Jeans always is a must-pack.

In five years, Facebook and Twitter will still be here.

Twister will come and go.

Still, be careful of both.

Its impact might be long-lasting. More than any of us is now realizing.

Just ask the scribes. They had no idea what they were doing when copying the Bible and later, print them.

A well-placed thought and well-said line becomes a saving line for someone in need and in search of truth, on or off-line. But ill-thought and ungraceful comments stay digitally and eternally.

Xerox, Yahoo and Google

With the exception of Yahoo, we can pretty much use the other two as verbs i.e. to Xerox s/t or to Google it.

When your company is a household “action” verb, you have it made.

Yahoo got a head start, with strong brand recognition.

But it flounders (even MySpace, as cool as it once was, couldn’t escape this mayhem).

AOL, Yahoo and MySpace belong to Web 1.0 era, the Valley’s equivalent of Big Band music.

We are commemorating the 10th anniversary of 9/11.

And candidates from both parties are now running for 2012.

Get a move on.

Don’t believe me? just Google it.

The speed of data processing and forced “choice architecture” results in shorter attention span.

We can’t recall but the top 3 (Incidentally,  World Economic Forum ranked the US as number 5 this year, after Switzerland, Singapore and Sweden).

Here in the US, we can’t even use the old Avis motto (We’re number 2, we work harder).

What belong to the previous decade stays with the previous decade.

No one could predict the rise of Singapore back in 1967 (or China in 1978).

In fact, much of the criticism was about its attempt at social engineering (match making its college educated).

Now, it’s number 2 and keeps working harder.

If I were to draft US policies, I would Xerox its road map, after Googling it.

This tiny country in Asia miraculously catapults into the big league.

If you understood how culturally advanced Sweden was, you would be able to appreciate the enormity of Singapore accomplishment.

Its secret sauce, turns out to be a right mix of social control and laissez faire .

Throw in a strong-handed leadership doesn’t hurt (remember Clinton had to plead so the gum-thrashing kid wouldn’t get spanked).

I wonder any of the folks who were on TV last night, purported to hold a recipe for recovery,

had ever set foot on this tiny island called “Sing” (short for Singapore)

or known precisely where it was.

Thank God for Google Map. Now, xerox it.

Think, Act, and Think again

We conjured up symbols, codes and instructions for machine to act.
Now that the machine does most of the work. It’s time to play? Not necessarily, because machines get smarter. So, we have to upgrade our own software to keep up since there is no return to hunting and harvesting.From Malthusian and Moore’s law.  from Bowling Alone (without a friend) to Karaoke (without a band), we have evolved beyond recognition. Meanwhile, the Highest court is burdened with same-sex marriage, while American children grow up in motels.

Think again.

Moore’s Law for Tech Giants

If Rip Van Winkle woke up today, he would be surprised to see Facebook. If he had waken up a decade ago, he would have read about Google.And the decade before that, Microsoft.

Except this time, Mark Zuckerberg is much younger than the other founders, dominated the media landscape quicker . And he donated part of his earnings to charity, much earlier (Bill and Melinda Gates took off to India a few Window versions later).

In short, everything (concept to contribution) seems to follow Moore’s Law which was first applied to the speed of chips.

When Microsoft opened its Silicon Valley branch, and Facebook its first summer frat house on the West coast, we know where Mecca for techies is.

One can only hope the rise of Facebook inspire others, despite its floundering IPO.

Tech year, like dog year, ends quickly. It just seems like yesterday, when Bill Gates

tried to size up Netscape, or Murdoch MySpace and WSJ mix.

Today, half of the staff  are clearing their desks, leaving behind half of My Space For-Lease. Moore’s Law is ominous when applied outside of chip manufacturing.

Facebook prosumerism

We have put in long hours, uploading, editing, “friending”, texting, in-mailing, posting, commenting, searching and even reading up on and seeing a movie about Facebook.

A recession distraction? or tip of the iceberg in what is finally Personal Computing and Networking? At least, computer finally “think” out of its “computing” box.

Now, it’s about lifestyle exchange (what he had for breakfast, what photo compelled her to share etc…).

I still remember the post cards, send between North and South Vietnam. It is today’s equivalence of  “Status” on Facebook. Except that those post cards traveled across the DMZ, much like North and South Korea today.

So, we have evolved, from tin cans to tablets, from post card to Facebook.

The Tofflers were right. Today’s Revolutionary Wealth takes on new forms, the principal one is prosumerism (whereby we take part in the making of the products and services we consume e.g. Stuff a bear, or submit your T-shirt design).

Facebook not only provides the platform for sharing, advertising, but also, a chance to jump-start this economy.

Let the game begin, again.

The rush, the drive. There will be blood.

Facebook’s own status: Alive and well. Still with the CEO in T-shirt and jeans.

Coding away or traveling to China.

I can’t wait to see what happens at the Oscars. Will they come on stage on roller blades? Tuxedo with T-shirt inside? Meanwhile, I have to log on to my Facebook.

It’s a daily ritual  borderline addiction. And I am glad Tina Tequila’s fans don’t follow her over to Facebook  from  MySpace. There was too much prosumerism in her eroticism. Mam, just the Face, Mam.