Tag: AOL

Start-ups vs instutional memories

Vincent Cerf is a case in point.

He is perhaps the oldest employee at young Google. Before that, a lifer at MCI.

But you need someone who has been there, done that. Who could connect the dots (or see them at all).

Start-ups got money and the juice.

Most of, start-ups got the goods and the guts to make it happen.

Then when things fly, ROI positive and dividends paid out, things get complicated and dull.

Start-up phase is giving ways to institutionalizing process.

This is where precedent comes into play. Where expertise and wisdom are in demand.

The White House employs a few Senior Advisors for this very function.

Lately, news has a ring of the familiar: Saturday Evening Post gone, then Saturday Post Office closed.

Instagram is taking over where it used to be My Space. Dell has outlived its just-in-time idea.

And HP is HP (could have become another Lenovo).

At least we recognize the telecom bubble (Enron and AOL). So this time, someone like Vincent is needed to give wise counsel.

To see ahead of the curve. To go through the check list of that which quacks like a duck.

We need a healthy dose of self-disruption. A life unexamined is not worth living. The same with companies, and start-ups.

In the absence of wise counsel, institutions perish.

What  you don’t need is a historian (who will do a post-mortem). What you do need is someone from the inside who was from the outside, and whose comments you might not like, but desperately needed. Someone with some institutional memories to serve up a healthy dose of “you might want to take a look at this”, ” I wouldn’t do it if I were you”. They might be that embodiment and personification of the impersonal beast we call institution. In each system, we need a living and breathing wise one to serve as a speed bump. Or that they can work from the future backward, to pre-mortem a project and visualize certain death to save it.

Enduring trends

Technologists are enthusiasts. Their progress are documented in hockey-stick trends. Meanwhile  we as ordinary human are still reacting out of fear as if we were still living in caves. The reptilian brain vs rapid rise of chip speed, guns vs germs, technology vs anthropology!

As early as 1950’s, graduates would hear something like: “boy, you get that desk job, stay there, work your way up and cash out . You will be set, boy.” In short, seniority and being an institutional memory keeper equal “iron rice bowl”.

Not in the 21 century. Take Yahoo. A darling of Silicon Valley (I am still using yahoo mail, reliable), but increasingly, moving into the slot left vacant by AOL. (Facebook, if not careful, might fall into the MySpace hole).

When I took Science, Technology and Society at Penn State in my senior year, I realized then that not all technology were meant to take off, or were a blessing. They are both blessing and curse. (I must give the US Post Office some credits for converting its entire fleet to Electric Vehicles a years back).

These trends will stay with us:

– socks (short or long)

– jeans

– baby pics, mobile apps

– slow rock (romantic)

– sunset, virtual or real

– kind words, kind gesture, roses

– birthday cakes

– tomb stones or equivalent if cremated

– shoes, shorts and sandals

– contact lenses (as flat screens)

– vitamins, although God knows what they put in there.

The Economist has its cover story this week about our human body, as composed of bacteria cells.

But how come those bacteria got vibrated with Streisand’s Evergreen? With Nocturne? Chopin and Bach?

Until technologists learned that we are more complex than the mind can understand, then they get somewhere.

Invent only that which benefits mankind, stuff that people can use. Don’t chase lab stuff only. Solve  problems:

how to get your hair done the quickest way in the morning, how to get to work using the best route, nearest gas station that charges less (or use EV) glove compartment that can store today’s aviation sun glasses, games that kids can play and learn something while at it, profile  algorithms that make friends out of strangers. Science, Technology and Society. When they plugged in the electricity for the first time at the Chicago fair, many thought it had been Heaven. Now, we took it for granted. Let’s hope for some break-through, even when many will fail. Try again. Keep in mind, the reptilian brain. How we still react like cavemen. Still love like cavemen. And yes, jealousy still is a big part. Those are enduring trends you can bet on.

Xerox, Yahoo and Google

With the exception of Yahoo, we can pretty much use the other two as verbs i.e. to Xerox s/t or to Google it.

When your company is a household “action” verb, you have it made.

Yahoo got a head start, with strong brand recognition.

But it flounders (even MySpace, as cool as it once was, couldn’t escape this mayhem).

AOL, Yahoo and MySpace belong to Web 1.0 era, the Valley’s equivalent of Big Band music.

We are commemorating the 10th anniversary of 9/11.

And candidates from both parties are now running for 2012.

Get a move on.

Don’t believe me? just Google it.

The speed of data processing and forced “choice architecture” results in shorter attention span.

We can’t recall but the top 3 (Incidentally,  World Economic Forum ranked the US as number 5 this year, after Switzerland, Singapore and Sweden).

Here in the US, we can’t even use the old Avis motto (We’re number 2, we work harder).

What belong to the previous decade stays with the previous decade.

No one could predict the rise of Singapore back in 1967 (or China in 1978).

In fact, much of the criticism was about its attempt at social engineering (match making its college educated).

Now, it’s number 2 and keeps working harder.

If I were to draft US policies, I would Xerox its road map, after Googling it.

This tiny country in Asia miraculously catapults into the big league.

If you understood how culturally advanced Sweden was, you would be able to appreciate the enormity of Singapore accomplishment.

Its secret sauce, turns out to be a right mix of social control and laissez faire .

Throw in a strong-handed leadership doesn’t hurt (remember Clinton had to plead so the gum-thrashing kid wouldn’t get spanked).

I wonder any of the folks who were on TV last night, purported to hold a recipe for recovery,

had ever set foot on this tiny island called “Sing” (short for Singapore)

or known precisely where it was.

Thank God for Google Map. Now, xerox it.

Tech buying spree

Even the President couldn’t help visiting Facebook campus in Palo Alto two weeks ago, and in Austin. California companies now talk of an Austin strategy, just like GE back in the 90’s with  India.

I finally realized the wisdom of Alex who made millions from his dollar-per-dot concept. Except this time, it will be the buttons (Like by Facebook, and +1 by Google). T for Twitter, I for LinkedIn and F for Facebook. No wonder MS needs the S button (for Skype). Companies stake out their turfs, online and on-screen to gain shares in this attention economy.

Speak succintly, and speak frequently. Retweet yourself after me.

“I, would like, to buy, a hamburger” (Pink Panthers).

Again.

I remember when companies would hire people to click on their websites so they can rise in Alexa’s ranking (if broadcasters could do the same to secure ratings).

Skype has been a tech marvel, and a business basket case. It had not made money, yet sold to E-bay, who lost money on the deal. And now, it earns a chunk of change passing on to Silver Lake.

Welcome to the 21st century. Members only. Multi-taskers only. Eat,pray and love.

Type, talk and think.

Tech topics cover M2M, which is the next big thing. Where does that leave us, human operators?

To preside on top of the food chain, we need to fight for our supremacy, not over each other, but over machines. Seek first SEO then all these things shall be added unto you. Establish your Web presence. And be relevant (unlike Bin Laden, who was rendered “irrelevant” by the 2011 Arab Spring).

It’s not a coincident that we are tackling, via crowdsourcing, the $300- house challenge for the bottom 2 billion.

Can I have Skype with that?

I just notice that Steve Balmer, during his announcement of MS’s biggest buy, did not even wear a suit.

MS, personified in Steve, is trying hard to stay relevant in this fast and forever young digital world. Time Warner was doing the same with AOL, who in turn, has just made a chess move with Huffington Post. Maybe Skype isn’t the end game for MS. Just its beginning to embrace Skype-type users (early adopters) in the hope that osmosis between MS and Skype will work miracle. If not, then “eat, pray and love”, as Time Warner and AOL once did.

The tough gets going

Steelers‘ number 33 and 34. Back to basics. One yard at a time to Super Bowl.

On the field or off it, we have to retrench and defragment. USA Today cover story features “the faces of today’s unemployed”, showing a nuclear family, sitting in the back of  the family pick-up truck, with two beautiful young daughters, a wife and a Dad who couldn’t turn to face the camera.

What have we done to ourselves?

Instead, we managed to distract ourselves with I-pod and I-pad, scrapbook and Facebook. User-generated content but not corporate-generated income.

World leaders are heading to Davos on private jets, while world factory workers take a nap on the last train home (Chinese New Year).

Instead of  having another Sputnik moment, we can barely have a picnic moment in the park, whose benches often serve as home for the homeless.

Each demographic cluster has its own “medium” of expression. In this case, card-board signs that say “anything helps”.

The longer the red light, the more time for guilt to build up (they should be in Davos street corners this week holding those card-board signs. Better donor pool).

I have noticed that:

– Star Wars and Apocalypse Now re-release (Blu Ray), the former made it as memorabilia for future generations.

– Men grooming sector surges with the rise of unemployment (first in Japan and now in the West).

– Virtual funerals, instead of “the Big Chill” reunion (In traditional China, they even hired mourners to jazz it up).

– McDonald did well during the Recession, so they can afford to raise the price, while Arby’s is up for sale.

– The life cycle of tech companies (or their CEO’s) is shortened as compared to brick-and-mortars’

– Starbucks’ new logo is not the answer to boost sales. Another bubble is.

– Facebook photos, men in long shots, while women in close-ups

– Amazon keeps plugging away, under the radar, to position itself for virtualization and cloud computing

(while letting Google, Facebook and Apple steal the headlines).

– Yahoo, AOL and My Space already look like dinosaurs from Web 1.0

– China is leading in solar panel manufacturing. This plays to their strength (very similar to India’s momentum post-Y2K).

So, we are content with old institutions e.g. Larry King Show (whose guests feel like they are on America Got Talent), Regis Show and Tonight Show while Boomers seek familiar routine and route (35 miles an hour speed limit, same channel on TV, same store for breakfast. No wonder they can afford to raise the price. No place else to go!).

Some old tricks still work, as the case with the Steelers’ that got them to the Super Bowl. Makes one wonder if we should bring back Reagan-Thatcher’s strong-handedness (whose inflationary consequences are still felt today). This time, it is going to be without Mr Stockman.

Content, conduit, contrarian

The creator of Million-Dollar Homepage cashed out, and did nothing for five years.

I have waited for the other shoe to drop. It just did. Do Nothing for 2 Minutes.

http://www.donothingfor2minutes.com/

The high school graduate does put his thinking cap on every so often, and knows how to create buzz.

He either sells ad dots (as opposed to ad banners), or do nothing.

Still he needs to reach us, this time, via Comcast or Time Warner (conduit).

The pipe owners just lay cable while others hold the Master Switch i.e. providing content as well. So they risked everything, first through a disastrous merger with AOL, and of late, with NBC (I like the forced PSA on Missing Child Report.)

So, the current $99 (or less) Triple Play promotion (envisioned a decade ago after the Telecommunications Act of 1996) locks in a healthy base.

On the Web front, we have barely scratched the surface. Google has another round of reorg (deemed Google 3.0) while continues on its long journey of “organizing the world’s information” and “not being evil”. It has recruited enough staff for Google Adsense in Vietnam.

Young entrepreneurs think  contrarian. CEO’s of tech companies addressed the troop wearing wireless mic, free to move about or on skateboard. The internet charged out of the gate at such a furious rate that it’s still a guessing game for many. Eventually, stake holders will influence the outcome (as well as market’s force). We will perhaps have an oligarchical web world.

For now, we suspend our disbelief.  Art is imitating life in the Social Network.

If I were Alex, my next web page would be a million faces (dead or alive) all in dots. Or Do Nothing for 3 minutes (add one minute of silence for victims of recent wars). But then, Maya Lin already beat me to the punch. Hers is called the Vietnam Memorial Wall.

Prominent display

If you want your brand to stick , you got to plaster it on Times Square billboards.

Yahoo did. I bet they spent a fortune for that property. Build, and they will come.

Not bad for a company started out in a Standford dorm room.

Companies are competing for Continuous Partial Attention (CPA).

This time around, it’s inevitable that attention is moving online, and on the go.

HP got it. UA couldn’t get over the urge to merge.

Most sectors which got deregulated ended up morphing through multiple mutation (cable, telco, airline, banking and lately Microsoft/Nokia).

On my street, there are a bunch of CHASE branches (where they used to be Washington Mutual).

Signs of the time.

You would think  you would see fewer walk-in banking.

Meanwhile, I don’t get to see the video clerks any longer (the teller, I see once a year if at all).

Good thing Quentin Tarantino moved up in the food chain to shoot movies. Or else, he would have been out of a job.

And Lindsay Lohan, in a desperate move to acquire prominent display (visibility), accepted the role of Linda Lovelace.

LL for LL. All the more fitting.

Everybody is on camera (because the cell phone is now a camera). And not just Big Brother is watching (that was the passe vision of 1984).

Prominent display or not, we are all on display. Control your image, control your life.

 

You’ve got comment!

When lunching near Dulles Airport  years ago, we ran into some Teleglobe colleagues who had gone over to AOL.

Back then, I looked at those guys with a bit of envy. After all, we were just a voice backbone.

Those guys were in their honeymoon with Time Warner, both pipe and pipe dream.

Now, this merger has now been unraveled .

One thing has changed over this decade: customers can and will talk back, even from Dell hell.

We used to laugh at “voice mail jail”. Companies cannot afford a “taxi driver’s” attitude (Are you talking to me?).

Amazon rating, feedback loop, survey, independent research, mystery shopper, disgruntled employees etc…. The old untouched “suggestion box” is as outdated as the IBM Selectric typewriter.

Wiki everything. Google everything. Twitter everything. The many “faces” on Facebook. Many lives on Second Life.

Many files on Drop Box,  Amazon’ rent-a-server or Salesforce.com CRM. Modularity and virtuality are counter-trends of our disposable society.

At Teleglobe, that’s what we did: Rent-a-switch (telecom). International entrepreneurs only had to come with a willingness, a niche market and some upfront costs. The rest, from licensing to private billing, we handled.

It worked beautifully. And I know Cloud Computing will take IT investment to the next level, freeing up companies to soar, and expand side way or upward, without attending to the flickering lights in server farm.

The post-machine age (on-prem) has finally arrived. The unbundling of MS Office and many other packaged solutions. Pay per user. Companies can now launch seasonal campaign or handle a PR crisis with speed and less cost.

Bad news tends to travel faster than good.

You’ve got comment!.

First responder to those comments can reduce damage into dent, or turn negative into positive. Customers have always been Kings. It’s just that Kings don’t get to speak too often, until now.