Tag: Wall Street

Wake me when October ends

Limits to power. Limits to growth. Speed limits.

We finally see ourselves in the mirror.

Dying, decaying, decomposing.

Long live Blue Jeans, T-shirt and Rock “n” Roll.

60 Minutes capitalized on their archive footage to show us the evolution of John Kerry.

Our evolution, from idealism to realism.

The aging process that takes a toll on a powerful nation.

Shrinking. Going private (BlackBerry, Dell) , going home fishing (Steve Ballmer) or going home (Jobs).

Wake me when October ends or when the government is back to work again (as of this, it is facing another shut-down).

My friend is worried about his pension.

I told him to get out and vote.

A country is strong when its young people feel like they can make a difference, or can affect change.

The options are now limited: voters drive, enlistment (not a good idea given Syria and the rise of soft powers), volunteer for  NGO‘s or work in the mill (Amazon is now hiring seasonal workers only).

When NGO”s are on the rise, more than private sector, we have a problem.

Instead of churning out paper money, the nation is better off with “greed is good” days on Wall Street.

At least,  people have reasons to get up in the morning and read the WSJ.

Now, it’s “wake me up when October ends”.

What motivates people are still the same (Maslow scale).

But the mechanism to bring it about seems to be broken: it’s one thing for young people to give up a Wall Street job for Peace Corps, it’s another not to have a job at all, hence, compassion fatigue.

Back in the days of Peace Corps, a generation vowed to “Ask Not…”.

Now, they stop asking, eye glued to the screen, playing war games.

Drone nation.

Everything is available in small sizes (USB, blue tooth etc…).

Digitized. Think in code.

Machine (Google Search) is learning semantics and contextual relations while human refuses to seek understanding (Iran, Iraq, what’s the difference?).

Wake me when October ends.

Let the brain sort it out while we sleep our way through October.

May it wake up fully recharged, reactivated for full-use.

Einstein only used up a tiny portion of his brain cells. Look where it has taken him and us. Imagine when all of us wake up by month end, start thinking in semantics and contextual relevance. A thinking nation is a dangerous one. Sleep tight!

No Spring attached

Having lived in coastal cities for quite some time, I forgot what’s like to wait for Spring.

We need Winter as a set up for Spring.  Winter-Spring contrast is more striking than that of Summer-Fall.

We also anticipated Spring more than Fall (some even wish for endless summers).

Vietnamese literature and lyrics (Gold music) nevertheless, serenade Fall and fallen leaves more than other times of the year.

Something about a dreamy creek which evokes music and deers which stand still, clueless and trusting.

The wait for Spring has stretched out a bit further lately due to climate change.

But Spring has always been a symbol of  hope and renewal.

Gone are the days of cold temperature and heavy coats.

Spring breakers are anticipating wild celebrations down Florida beaches.

The Church is electing its new Pope just in time for Easter Celebration.

And Wall Street keeps ringing its bell.

Something is in the air, if not Spring itself.

Optimism is more contagious than grim bad news.

There is nothing more forward-looking than holding a baby in arms.

So much future, so many more seasons.

In that context, it’s not so bad to put up with a few overcast days.

There are also sparks of creativity in this year’s Paris outerwear collection.

With Spring comes less laundry to do (wearing less), some Easter candies to eat and the Cherry Blossom Parade to attend.

Spring is in the air. Everyone seems to be eager for it,… except those with hay fever. Now, that explains the eye irritation starts coming my way.

There are always strings attached, even for Spring.

Personality as motivator

Besides fun, fear and need for recognition, each of us is motivated by an unique set of triggers.

Some are expressive e.g. talk it out to then realize what they think.

Analytical people, however, weigh the pros and cons before opening their mouths.

Amiable people just empathize, feely-touchy and are good listeners

Social folks love to smok’em at barbecue parties: the more the merrier.

Finally, the quickest of all are the Alpha-Male types: shoot first aim later.

Most managers have been managed by other managers, who in turn, pass down the command-control model.

Just Do It!

And they are right half of the time.

When workers left their company, nobody bothered to do a post-mortem.

It’s like a death in the family. To be politically correct, nobody should mention the “others” who are no longer “us”.

Write if off on the left column, as burnt rate, from attrition.

Even in warfare, military historians take years of reflection and review to extract “lessons learned”.

Companies cannot afford this. Just hire new staff. Invest in new head counts.

The (vicious) cycle starts again. One motivational model imposed on various types off workers.

My way or highway.

The best middle manager is the one who can negotiate and walk the fine line between corporate interests and line workers/market expectations, between Wall Street and Main Street.

The best leaders are ones who can detect conflicting signals sent up and down the chain. Without the people carrying out strategies and tactics, things don’t move. But to move so fast in the wrong direction is much worse. (see Matterhorn or My Lai Massacre).

It boils down to attitude, aim and action. Recent article in the NYT shows that people who adjust their course mid-stream (after examining underlining assumptions)  can pivot to success. It’s not difficult to apply the right mix of motivators. But first, one needs to be self-motivated and undergo self-examination (ego? pride? face-saving?).

And this process is hard. Look yourself in the mirror, know all the weaknesses  and seek redemption. That’s when things start to turn. There is no coach that will yell at you. Just an empty locker room at half-time. Helmets off. Sweat and tears. The score board doesn’t lie. We are all behind, to face imminent loss. And worst of, loss of self-confidence. Seek the right mix of motivators for your team, yourself and your families. Tough-love yourself.

Unseen hands

that manipulate interest rates, oil price, appropriate and earmark budgets for the commons.

Adam Smith must be talking about the abstract “invisible hand” of a free market, while in reality, we all feel there are levers behind the scene with successive hands, tinkling and adjusting. Some are automated, by self-improving algorithms.

One example of the devastating works of this unseen hand was seven or eight years ago, when people in Southern California driving to Arizona and Las Vegas to buy houses. People who were NINJ (No job, no income).

The unseen hand that was supposed to regulate, didn’t.

Now, they uncover a bunch of Ponzi schemes. Quickly, these poster boys are put away, or at least, taken out of their nice homes in Colorado.

I do buy things to sustain. Hence, I am a consumer, but refuse to be called consumerist. I don’t follow the cult of purchase for purchase’s sakes.

I don’t buy to stimulate anything. If the economy can’t get cranked by itself (with 7 Billion of us buying things day in and out), then all the unseen hands in the world can’t help it.

At least, there is some good news from the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. And Wall Street chart starts looks like a slanted V-shaped recovery. Let’s hope so. Rally, rally, rally. Oil price goes up. Confidence is up. So is the temperature.

If you don’t hit the store by 10AM, forget it. The USA weather maps shows red-hot regions in the South. It’s global warming. And we need those unseen hands to regulate the thermostat as well. I am not against hands. Just encourage them to tinkle with the right buttons, while letting the market regulate itself, in the noble Adam Smith tradition.

My Turn

For years, Newsweek had devoted one-page My Turn for reader’s Op-ed. This move paved the way for crowdsourcing and blogging, which are both technology-enabled (same way the Karaoke machine let the audience to have their turn at the mike).

We will come to a point in the future where past practices (museum, musical hall and magazines) criss-cross with emerging ones (file sharing).

Top-down meets bottom-up.

Online games and gaming are taking away revenues from traditional casinos and sport venues.

The desire and drive to share have found a platform ( faster speed of upload.)

Brainstorming technique has been around in Group Communication, but it is stiffling and sterile.

Individual creativity has been around but it works best when not imposed.

In fact, the best contribution from team members comes intrinsically and accidentally.

(see latest Opinion Page in NYT on “the New Group Think”).

Tell all this to century-old bureaucracy (yet Wall Street is known to build colo centers right next to financial center, to gain those mili-second trading advantage. This was to show that speed  works both ways: it takes us up quickly, or down equally quickly e.g. flash crash).

Barnes and Nobles is now betting on its Nook e-readers.

Amazon on digital publishing.

Newsweek and US News and World Reports are focusing on in-depth reportage or University rankings.

I miss Newsweek’s My Turn, but I know it has outlived its time.

Now, we can view instant comments after a post.

Why wait for the editors to select (curate) and show to us?

It’s the age of personal computing, broadband on steroid and fast results at the poll.

Those who are quick to comment will get last-in first-out ranking.

There are ways now to accommodate everyone’s Turn.

Micro Trend, Macro World

Economy of scale, strength in numbers, linear growth.

Out of the 7 Billion of us, almost half live in the cities (hints: pollution, traffic congestion, high crime rate, time crunch, shrinking quality of life, more opportunities but unsustainable).

I read about China’s sewer cooking oil, crocodiles roaming the streets of Bangkok, and tent city on Wall Street.

In Micro Trends, the author mentions niche markets like knitting, which command 1 percent of the larger market.

Harley Davidson is now targeting women (empty nesters whose OK’s are critical before husbands can “buy to be wild”).

Near where I live, a new store has just opened. It is called “Halloween Express”.

They cherry-pick the 7 Billion-dollar seasonal costume and candy markets.

Or, take virtual Job Fair. More candidates can visit the “booths” while HR and recruiters can make the most of their day. Fewer people are working and those who do, handle more work. The net effect has been productivity increase.

99% of 6 Billion in 1999 is less than 99% of 8 Billion in 2025. Too many people living too long creates capacity crunch. To solve this, we have to move to virtual world  (social media and rural broadband are in).

Population grows linearly, while  tech has shot up in hockey stick curve, creating an ever widening “digital divide” (lady old lady, driving while texting???).

Enter the rising costs of health care. A nightmarish scenario.

I don’t believe  Social Security will pay out as planned.

They will move the lamp-post, in the hope that those of us who don’t go to the gym will die before the first checks are cut.  Even when they did arrive, the adjusted for inflation amount will barely be sufficient (I read about a retiree couple relocating to Nha Trang and getting by on their meager income).

To find the silver lightning, we must look at new comers to the party.

They are eager, enthusiastic and resourceful. Our next billion of knights will have arrived by 2025.

Not long ago, when Bill Gates made his visit to Vietnam where young students said they all aspired to be mini-Gates.

I hope the same can be said about Steve Jobs, whose penchant is in product design, where Art intersects Technology. Design something people and yourself would want to have. New thoughts for a new world. Micro trends for a macro world.

In the mirror

Among Dylan’s many memorable lines is “you don’t need the weatherman to tell you which way the wind is blow-in”.

Even without the weatherman, we can feel that things are at a boiling point.

Like in the movie “the Network”, people start to open their windows and bell out “I am mad like Hell, and I won’t take it anymore”.

Except this time, instead of opening their windows, they opened Windows and Adbuster, which called for Occupy Wall Street (and McToilet on Wall Street).

A leaderless protest against figure-less forces that have worked against them e.g. commoditization, globalization, or automation.

Their 60’s counterparts wanted to rage against the status quo.

Conversely, “occupiers of Wall Street” just want to have an occupation that pays a little more than “nickel-and-dime”.

The wind is blowin but not in their favor (Andy Rooney has just retired leaving one vacancy for roughly 2 Billion people who recently joined the rank of the Middle Class).

Instead of “Hell No, We won’t go”, they are now yelling “Hell No, PLace To Go”.

India? China? Brazil?

To land a job in  BRIC‘s countries, one needs a crash course in language and culture.

(I resent the author of a recent Economist’s article, ridiculing “poor English” in Vietnam. Cheap shot at best, and colonialistic at worst.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/johnson/2011/09/english-vietnam?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/iamenglishteach

Go ahead and try to learn Mandarin).

Employers look for those with soft-skills that couldn’t be outsourced such as critical thinking, communicative and collaborative skill set across the cultures, but also to pay them at blue collar wages (high skill/low cost) since employers themselves are caught in a competitive race to the bottom due to outsourcing, offshoring and now re-shoring. Damn if you do, damn if you don’t.

Currently a jobs bill which runs at $200,000 per job is on the table.

Foreign students said “No thanks” (even when their HB1 visas were extended) and went home after graduation (BlueSeed is trying to dock a ship out in Seattle Waters to go around this rule).

At first, I thought it was because of the wives (who couldn’t find spices in groceries stores) who pressured their expat husbands to return (let’s stay to India and Singapore) – Japanese executives wouldn’t choose to work here in the US for fear of derailing their career tracks – But, I found it’s more of a pull than push force that they chose not to stay around (follow the money i.e. emerging domestic markets).

In “It used to be us”, the author of “The World is Flat” himself is baffled by his own themes (globalization and IT revolution).

Now, even call centers got automated (outsourcing next level, to automation), so high-value representatives can proactively chat with callers.

We are all caught off- guard: a job loss here, a dead-end career there.

Before we know it, we blame it on Wall Street (partly true, but not the whole picture – the same way India’s service industries and China’s manufacturing industries got the blame for our Lost Decade, or the Japanese lean -semiconductor- manufacturing in the 80’s or the Vietnam War for taking the Johnson’s administration’s eyes of the-Great Society).

But the story is more complicated than that. The solution seems to be multi-pronged because the problem is multi-faced.

Jack Ellul already touched on the idolization of “technique” back in the 60’s. Now, techno-fundamentalism is pervasive in every faced of life (what could be digitized, must be digitized – Larry Page was quoted to say : “let’s have a million engineers” to outrank or outPagerank Microsoft’s 25,000 strong army), forcing “human” to reflect and re-think about what it is that makes them marketable (the human touch, emotional intelligence etc….) in the 21st century.

No wonder we feel short-changed (too many of us chasing too few opportunities at the bottom – even high-paying construction jobs are no longer there on this side of the housing bubble). At the top, one will take a CEO job, like at HP, but for only $1.00.

It reminds me of Newsweek which was acquired also for $1.00).

This Halloween we will be in default costumes, that of homeless men and jobless women (carrying huge luggage, or brief case).

It’s time to revisit Native Americans on the occasion of Columbus Day (to press restart).

It’s time to reinvent  the American Dream. We don’t have to look too far, since the cause and the cure for today’s malaise and misery are right there, in the mirror.

I hope they keep the mirror squeaky-clean there at the McDonald on Wall Street for our protestors’ comfort and convenience.

Whiter shade of HP

“The crowd call out for more…”

Procol Harum’s one-hit wonder, with his indelible organ solo, still mystified many on YouTube.

Legacy companies in a mature industry such as HP, have moved too far away from their roots,

hence, at great risk of being irrelevant or turning into wax (Icarus paradox).

In HP’s early days, Bill and Dave pulled together their resources, built their own road around the farm,

and of course, started to fill small orders for test instruments or whatever people wanted to trust them with.

Wall Street is still using HP calculator, a testimony to an American enduring icon.

I am a fan.

But so were many Pan Am loyal customers. They are the ones who, as of last night, watched Pan Am

the TV series. Vintage and nostalgic. A remembrance of time passed, American way.

The Economist’s winding topic “Is America a Third World Country” still sees people weighing in almost every day.

What used to work might not work again.

Not at today’s scale and speed.

With a bunch of acquisitions, most notably Compaq, HP exerted its reach beyond its core competencies and watered down its culture.

No more the old self-reliance, can-do attitude and (autonomy) tight-knit group (the original founders took yearly vacation together).

If only HP could recapture some of its former glory e.g. divided into start-up units w/micro-funding and yes, making engineering hip again (back to the garage).

It cannot put old wine in new wine skin, the way A Whiter Shade of Pale being played by a symphony orchestra.  Somehow, it gotta to be heard in its original unadulterated electric organ.

Ms Whitman will have to double up as a CCO, i.e. orchestrate  organic growth, and plant the seeds of self-disrupt (all the while, still getting paid $1). She did it with multiple sports. She might be able to pull this off again, after E-bay magic.

Nowadays, we feel disheartened with titles like “That Used to Be Us” .

It’s good that the incoming CEO had a taste of defeat, and spent some time at Valley’s most famous Venture group.

She is now tasked with rekindling the fire of rugged individualism, who once conquered the Wild Wild West, and

spreading it into the World Wide Web.

There will be many misses and a few hits. Most of all, she might have to live with one-hit wonder and try to milk it . It’s a long-tail economy which favors low-cost softwares, leaving hardware heavy weights like HP with grandfathered products.

With bold statements like “the importance for Silicon Valley, for the nation and the world”, our HP new chief has just put on more chips on her shoulders.

Just make sure the company keep its ink division. You don’t want a whiter shade of print coming out of my computer at home.

Selling rain gears on sunny day

I still remember watching “Les Parapluies de Cherbourg“, a French musical film.

Of course, more umbrellas are sold when it rains. But when it “never rains in Southern California“, how would marketers manage?

The answer: rain making. And yes they did!

I was sitting on the top bleacher of Sea World, San Diego. And there they were, selling rain gears on a bright sunny day.

Those merchandise sold like popcorn. Even had the Sea World logo on them.

The catch: so you don’t get wet when Shamu splashes water all over you (supposedly a VIP treatment).

American capitalism at its best:  selling ice-cream to Eskimo.

Value-creating.

Young people finally say something: they are “Occupying Wall Street.”

Never too late (if there were to be a double-dip Recession).

The floor has been primarily occupied by the likes of Mr Buffett, who deserves and got a tax-hero medal.

But UBS?

Today’s culture of Wall Street makes yesterday’s Gordon Gekko look like an altar boy.

Greed is good. More greed is better.

At least, Mark Zuckerberg is still seen in his signature T-shirt (the only time he was seen in suit and tie was on Facebook town hall with President Obama).

Now, it’s LinkedIn’s turn to hold a virtual town hall (The Age of Participatory).

Hint: you can send in a lengthier question, at least, longer than 140 characters.

And maybe, promote yourself into a job.

After all, it’s LinkedIn.

I sold school magazines, defunct currency and fax machines when I first started out.

I can always tell when customers are satisfied (after-sales gratitude, or landing my first date after pitching our school magazine).

The decoupling of bankers-borrowers, buyers and sellers have led to current debacle. We need rain makers, not rogue traders. But most of all, we need satisfied customers who will act as evangelists.

The culture of commerce had existed long before technology or currency came along (Silk Road).

Technology only facilitates and accelerates the exchange. By no means it should replace the handshake or  trust-building.

I saw the joy of those people who put on Sea-World ponchos that day. They still had them on when the show was over.

They inadvertently acted as Sea World’s walking bill boards. Now, that’s capitalism at its best: a win-win proposition that is sustainable.

When you are happy, it’s a musical, like “Singing in the Rain” or as I can still recall Les Parapluies de Cherbourg or Sea World. In the Last Lecture, Randy recalled his childhood trip to Disney World that had turned career-forming for him. Help people experience, and they in turn,  help you with yours.

Osmotic effect

BlackBerry was blamed for London Summer unrest while tech proponents gave it credits for Arab Spring.

Tech is just out there, with its incremental and osmotic effect.

What society chooses to do with it is entirely different.

There will come a time when we do need to switch to energy-efficient light bulbs, paint our roofs white and use plug-in hybrid vehicles. All 7 billion of us.

I have always been fascinated with the Mormons in UT and the Amish in PA and OH.

They seem to have operated on a different plane.

The osmotic effect stops at their county line. Off-grid.

No stimulus, no response. No Playboy bunnies, only horse and buggy.

Meanwhile, 300 millions Chinese have been lifted out of poverty just as millions of American children are now entering it (boarding the school bus from outside of their motel rooms).

Osmotic effect.

With hooded sweats to cover their faces from London CCTV cameras, mass rioters force us to reconsider the Luddite‘s view. Has everything been too fast and easy?

It’s the difference between real noodle versus instant noodle. Try it to see what I mean.

The broth, slow cooking and osmotic effect. Something still needs time and not rushed into.

Like cleantech adoption.